924
FXUS65 KABQ 301921
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
121 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Dry storms and gusty showers in western and central New Mexico
  may produce erratic wind gusts this afternoon and evening then
  again on Tuesday. Dry storms may cause new fire starts.

- Beneficial light rain and high mountain snow arrive late
  Tuesday through Wednesday, with precipitation favoring northern
  New Mexico.

- Strong west winds Wednesday through Friday will create hazardous
  crosswinds for high profile vehicles. Increasing likelihood of
  critical fire weather conditions in eastern New Mexico on
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

In addition to near to record-breaking high temperatures, today`s
other weather impacts will be focused on gusty virga showers and dry
thunderstorms in portions of western to central NM. The upper level
pattern is defined by a stiff belt of zonal flow over the northern
conus where the polar jet is located, and while speeds are more
subdued this far south in NM, there is 15 to 25 kt of flow at 700 mb
that will keep prevailing surface winds breezy this afternoon. Mid
to high level moisture can be seen on satellite entering NM from the
southwest, but cumulus and any subsequent showers/storms will be
high-based with a very deep and dry boundary layer to overcome,
making measurable rainfall hard to come by. Rather, downdrafts will
have a lot of evaporation potential with high DCAPE that could lead
to gusty outflow winds through the early evening as these anemic
showers and storms fizzle into central zones. While no Red Flag
Warnings are out (prevailing winds are well below traditional
criteria), these scenarios always pose large concerns for new fire
starts with rapid spread potential under the gusty outflows. Showers
and storms should largely wane before midnight, but a few CAMs, such
as the often overzealous FV3, do carry a few stray cells into the
early morning hours Tuesday. Mid to high cloud cover will remain
fairly extensive overnight, and consequently low temperatures will
be on the warmer side.

On Tuesday, the flow aloft will start to turn more west
southwesterly, increasing slightly as a shortwave trough approaches
CA. A few weak small scale perturbations will be embedded in the
flow over the Four Corners and NM, helping spawn a few more weak
showers and thunderstorms over western and central zones through
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cloud bases will lower slightly, but
this activity will once again have difficulty producing significant
rainfall. Prevailing winds will be a bit stronger per the flow
aloft. The lee-side surface trough will take a different orientation
on Tuesday, dropping southeastward over the TX panhandle while a
backdoor front moves into eastern CO and western KS, just barely
pushing into Union county, NM. Many locations will observe a few
degrees of cooling, but temperatures will still run above normal
in all areas by 5 to 15 degrees on Tuesday.

Into Tuesday night, the flow aloft increases from the southwest as
the aforementioned shortwave trough encroaches upon the Four
Corners. Better baroclinicity and stronger forcing with this
shortwave will yield increased precipitation with some orographic to
brief periods of stratiform precipitation ensuing over northwestern
to north central zones through daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

During the daytime Wednesday, the shortwave trough axis will cross
the Rockies by late afternoon, accompanied with a Pacific front
passage. This will spread more rain and high mountain snow over
northern NM with precipitation tapering and becoming a bit more
isolated or scattered farther south, especially south of I-40.
Blended QPF guidance continues to paint a couple to a few tenths of
an inch over northwestern to north central zones, very beneficial,
but still not enough to put a dent in the drought. With low snow-to-
liquid ratios of 5:1 to 8:1, a couple to a few inches of snow are
slated for the mountains above 10kft, especially on the Tusas range
near the NM-CO border. Farther south, higher resolution models such
as the NAM and new RRFS still depict convection along the Pacific
front during the mid day time frame. While the precipitation will be
a welcome sight, it will be early April, traditionally our windiest
month, and the tight gradient aloft and at the surface with a deep
lee-side cyclone will lead to very strong surface winds Wednesday
afternoon. Many central to northeastern zones are still projected to
reach the 50 mph wind gust criteria for a Wind Advisory.

After falling back closer to seasonal normals on Wednesday,
temperatures gain a few degrees on Thursday as drier west southwest
flow aloft develops over NM. This change to the flow regime will be
in response to the next Pacific low that will be crossing
northwestern states Thursday. The feature will trek into the plains
Friday with the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean still leaning toward a
more northward path into ND while the EC and its ensemble mean
advertise a track farther south near CO/WY/SD. Either solution will
leave NM with mostly wind and a dry Pacific front on Friday. A split
flow pattern then becomes established this weekend with the polar
and subtropical jets both diverting north and south of NM,
respectively. This will lead to lighter winds and seasonable
temperatures in the wake of Friday`s front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Mid and high level clouds will increase today with weak showers
and thunderstorms struggling to take shape over western and
central areas of New Mexico. These will produce little rainfall,
but will be capable of hurling out abrupt, strong, and erratic
wind gusts through the early evening. A few lightning strikes will
also be possible. Prevailing winds will be gusty this afternoon
(gusts of 20 to 25 kt being common) through the early evening,
and then they will settle down and diminish. Winds will re-
strengthen late Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Breezy to windy conditions are ongoing over most of northern NM
today with widespread low humidity plaguing eastern zones. Slow
increases in mid to high level moisture in western zones of NM are
leading to the development of very high-based cumulus that will
slowly evolve into paltry showers and thunderstorms through the
early evening. The high bases of these showers/storms will increase
evaporation with virga and gusty downdraft winds being more common
along with an increased threat for dry lightning. This activity will
reduce and slowly diminish as it shifts into central NM through the
evening.

On Tuesday, a slight increase in winds aloft will translate to more
widespread breezy to windy conditions, particularly over northern
zones where occasional gusts of 30 mph will be common with a few
isolated gusts to 35 mph. Fortunately, where the strongest winds are
located, humidity will undergo slight rises, with many areas
hovering between 20 to 25% late Tuesday afternoon. This would lower
the critical threat some, but the potential for dry lightning will
linger over western to central areas of of NM. Overall, conditions
appear to stay elevated across all of the forecast area with
humidity being a slight deterrent in western zones and winds
acting as the limiter in eastern areas.

A stretch of stronger winds will then impact NM Wednesday, Thursday,
and Friday, first with a shortwave trough crossing near the NM-CO
border on Wednesday, followed by another Pacific storm system that
will cross farther to our north, but still leave us with a stout
pressure gradient and incoming cold front. Many northwestern to
north central zones are slated to receive soaking rainfall Tuesday
night into Wednesday, but this will also be the day of highest wind
speeds, particularly along and east of the central mountain chain.
There will also be a few showers and thunderstorms in these eastern
zones that will keep humidity elevated above traditional thresholds
for critical fire weather. Much lower humidity returns Thursday as a
dry slot aloft and warmer temperatures arrive, and this will raise
the risk for critical conditions, especially in eastern NM zones.
Winds will stay strong into Friday, turning more west and northwest
as the Pacific front arrives. The cooler temperatures will likely
offset the threat of critical conditions behind the front, but
eastern areas ahead of it will still be at risk. A welcome respite
from the winds is then forecast to return this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  72  47  62 /  10  20  70  80
Dulce...........................  35  69  37  54 /  10  30  80  90
Cuba............................  40  69  40  58 /  20  20  60  80
Gallup..........................  37  69  39  61 /  20  20  40  70
El Morro........................  40  66  41  57 /  20  30  50  60
Grants..........................  39  70  41  62 /  20  20  30  60
Quemado.........................  41  69  44  61 /  40  30  50  60
Magdalena.......................  47  72  50  65 /  30  10  30  40
Datil...........................  43  68  44  61 /  40  20  40  50
Reserve.........................  35  73  39  65 /  30  20  30  50
Glenwood........................  40  78  41  68 /  20  30  40  50
Chama...........................  36  62  35  47 /  10  20  80  90
Los Alamos......................  48  68  46  59 /  20  10  50  80
Pecos...........................  41  71  40  59 /  20  10  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  41  65  41  54 /   5  10  40  70
Red River.......................  37  59  37  47 /   5  10  50  70
Angel Fire......................  33  63  35  51 /   5  10  40  70
Taos............................  37  70  39  58 /  10   5  40  70
Mora............................  42  68  40  59 /  10  10  30  60
Espanola........................  43  75  44  65 /  10  10  50  80
Santa Fe........................  45  71  45  62 /  20  10  40  80
Santa Fe Airport................  44  75  44  66 /  20  10  40  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  75  53  66 /  30  10  40  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  78  52  69 /  20  10  30  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  80  46  72 /  20  10  30  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  78  53  69 /  20  10  30  70
Belen...........................  46  81  50  73 /  30  10  30  60
Bernalillo......................  49  78  51  68 /  20  10  40  70
Bosque Farms....................  44  79  46  72 /  30  10  30  60
Corrales........................  50  78  50  69 /  20  10  40  70
Los Lunas.......................  45  79  48  72 /  30  10  30  60
Placitas........................  53  74  52  65 /  20  10  40  70
Rio Rancho......................  53  77  54  68 /  20  10  40  70
Socorro.........................  52  82  55  74 /  20  10  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  70  48  61 /  30  10  50  70
Tijeras.........................  49  72  49  63 /  30  10  40  70
Edgewood........................  47  71  47  63 /  20  10  30  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  74  40  65 /  20  10  30  60
Clines Corners..................  44  71  42  60 /  20   5  30  60
Mountainair.....................  46  74  47  65 /  30   5  30  60
Gran Quivira....................  46  73  46  65 /  20  10  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  50  77  51  67 /  10   5  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  46  72  46  62 /   5   5  10  40
Capulin.........................  42  71  42  64 /   0  10  10  30
Raton...........................  39  75  40  66 /   0  10  20  40
Springer........................  39  77  42  68 /   0   5  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  44  73  43  62 /  10   5  20  50
Clayton.........................  53  79  45  72 /   0   5  10  30
Roy.............................  46  77  46  67 /   0   5   5  40
Conchas.........................  49  85  50  76 /   0   0   5  30
Santa Rosa......................  51  81  51  72 /   5   0   5  40
Tucumcari.......................  51  87  49  78 /   0   0   0  30
Clovis..........................  52  87  52  77 /  10   0   0  30
Portales........................  49  88  49  80 /  10   0   0  30
Fort Sumner.....................  48  86  50  77 /  10   0   5  30
Roswell.........................  52  89  53  81 /  10   5   0  20
Picacho.........................  50  82  51  74 /  10   5   5  30
Elk.............................  46  79  47  70 /   0   5   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52