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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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433 FXUS65 KABQ 280718 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1218 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026 - Low temperatures in the single digits tonight in the Roswell area will increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia. - Localized freezing fog tonight in the Pecos River Valley will create reduced visibility on roadways. - Dry conditions will prevail around the region through the end of the week as temperatures gradually moderate. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1217 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026 Temperatures have rebounded nicely over the past 24hrs as a dirty ridge of high pressure flattens and slides westward over the Four Corners region. The exception remains Roswell and Chaves County where abundant snow remains on the ground and where highs only topped out at 33F Tuesday. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Chaves County Plains where lows are forecast to dip to 9F at Roswell early this morning and where wind chills are likely to fall below zero again. This morning`s forecast challenge will be monitoring the development of freezing fog across Chaves County, where there is good potential given some prior snow melt having occurred and plummeting temperatures. Today`s forecast highs climbing into the low 40s should allow for even more snow melt and this will be a question again heading into Thursday morning but to a lesser degree. High clouds moving overhead tonight associated with the aforementioned dirty ridge could inhibit freezing fog development tonight as well. Outside of Chaves County, temperatures rise further today into the 50s for many lower elevation areas. A shortwave trough clipping northern and northeastern NM Wednesday night into Thursday morning will bring some windy conditions along the ridgeline of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Some of this may reach adjacent central and northeastern highland areas as well, but wind speeds look to stay below advisory criteria. The lowering pressure heights and modest cold front will stall the warming trend across much of the state for Thursday. The exception will be Chaves County where further snow melt will still allow for surface temperatures to trend warmer. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1217 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026 Friday begins the long term with stable sensible weather conditions across the state with light winds and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s over much of the forecast area. Thereafter, a potent low originating from the Hudson Bay will dive down the Great Plains and Midwest region of the CONUS sending down another potent cold front southward thru the central portion of the country. The western edge of this cold front will back into eastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning, but without the Arctic chill we observed this past week. The brunt of this Canadian airmass stays east of the region limiting the cool down across eastern NM where highs are forecast to dip into the 40s Saturday with lows in the teens and 20s. Sunday and Monday are forecast to see near perfect weather conditions across the Land of Enchantment as the next ridge of high pressure flattens and slides eastward across the region. Highs will be in the 50s for nearly all lower and mid-elevation areas each day with some low 60s across eastern NM. There is some precipitation potential starting Tuesday as a shortwave trough digs southward into CO and NM on the eastern periphery of yet another high amplitude ridge developing along or just offshore of the Pacific coastline. Global numerical model guidance eventually tries to evolve this scenario into a Rex-Block pattern over the western CONUS later into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at TAF sites, except at KROW where LIFR conditions in freezing fog are likely to develop again overnight. A few hours of MVFR conditions in mist at KROW will bumper potential for LIFR conditions, with the greatest forecast confidence between 09-13Z. Other than southwest breezes at KTCC during the afternoon hours and a northerly drainage wind at KSAF during the morning hours, winds will be light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1217 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026 No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Temperatures continue their warming trend today, plateauing Thursday and Friday. Breezy to windy northwesterly winds will clip the northern mountains tonight into Thursday morning, notably the Sangre de Cristo Mts. A weak cold front enters eastern NM bringing an easterly wind shift that quickly veers out of the south by Saturday. Light winds and pleasant weather conditions forecast Sunday and Monday before the next chance for precipitation arrives into northern NM Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 46 18 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 9 44 10 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 47 18 43 17 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 52 12 50 13 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 52 19 49 20 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 54 15 51 15 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 54 21 49 19 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 29 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 52 25 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 57 22 57 19 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 62 26 63 23 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 42 10 39 12 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 43 22 44 23 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 47 22 47 19 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 17 40 17 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 14 32 13 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 42 8 38 5 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 46 11 43 12 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 52 21 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 49 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 23 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 18 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 29 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 26 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 23 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 26 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 49 16 53 17 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 24 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 18 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 50 24 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 19 53 20 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 26 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 49 26 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 52 25 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 43 25 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 45 21 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 17 47 15 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 42 21 44 19 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 22 46 21 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 23 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 47 26 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 29 47 23 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 21 42 16 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 47 18 47 15 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 52 17 50 15 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 21 49 17 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 53 29 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 50 23 49 20 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 58 23 56 21 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 54 26 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 57 24 55 20 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 25 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 23 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 47 22 54 18 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 41 20 51 20 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 29 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 56 28 53 20 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...11 |
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NWS Albuquerque, NM (ABQ) Office Forecast Discussions.
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