379
FXUS65 KABQ 200858
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- The recent increase in storm coverage will continue today and
  Friday with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind
  gusts, and ponding of water on roads in many locations, as well
  as a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality
  in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-major heat risk will impact much of central and
  eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week
  with record and near-record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 129 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A 598 DAM high pressure center over northern AZ at this time will
drift northeastward over the Four Corners by this afternoon, then
over west central CO by Friday afternoon. This position will
continue to draw increased atmospheric moisture over southern,
central, and western parts of the forecast area today, then mainly
over western areas on Friday. Meanwhile, drier air will filter
over northeast and east central areas both days. As a result,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast both
afternoons and evenings mainly from the central mountain chain
westward, although there will be scattered to isolated cells over
the east slopes of the central mountain chain and across much of
the eastern plains this afternoon and evening. Storm`s today will
move toward the south and southwest around 5-20 mph, except to
the south southeast on the eastern plains. On Friday, storms will
move mostly toward the west around 5-15 mph. High temperatures
both days will vary around 5-10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages.

Considered issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the recent burn scars
around Ruidoso for today, but would like to see more agreement
among high res models on the location of precip bullseyes there
before doing so. NBM 90th percentile QPF is only 0.25-0.50" with
only a 10 percent chance of higher amounts. Will let the day shift
reassess when new models arrive in the morning. Given rich
antecedent moisture from the past two days of rainfall and
flooding impacts, the day crew will probably lean towards issuing
a Watch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

The high pressure center aloft is forecast to drift over the
northeast corner of NM Saturday, southward along NM`s eastern
border to near I-40 on Sunday, over southeast NM Monday, then
gradually more westward over southern NM Tuesday and Wednesday;
although models increasingly vary in the position of the high
after Monday. Drier air will wrap around the high and over
southern parts of the forecast area starting Saturday, then over
central and western areas as well Sunday and Monday. As a result,
there will be a downtick in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms each day, as well as a general decrease in precip
amounts, with the bulk of the coverage over northern and western
areas. High temperatures will generally vary around 5-13 degrees
above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon with the greatest
departures on the eastern plains. Record and near record high
temperatures are forecast each day, with an increasing number of
records forecast as the new week progresses.

A somewhat moist backdoor front is forecast to enter the eastern
plains Monday night with increasing moisture over the eastern half
of the forecast area on Tuesday, then over central areas as well
on Wednesday. This will enable storm chances to increase with each
day. Northwest flow aloft should enable some strong to severe
storms to develop over northeast areas starting Tuesday, then
potentially over more of the eastern plains on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage
through the late night hours lingering longest between Socorro and
Fort Sumner. On Thursday afternoon and evening, scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms return to much of the forecast
area. Storm motion will be toward the south and southwest around
5-15 KT. A few of Thursday`s stronger storms will be capable of
producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind
gusts up to 45 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Sub-15 percent minimum humidity is forecast over northwest parts
of the forecast area today, then mainly over the Four Corners on
Friday. After continued moisture improvement Saturday, critically
low minimum humidities will increase in coverage with each day
Sunday through Tuesday, except in the east on Tuesday. Otherwise,
the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic
thunderstorm outflow, which will be most widespread today and
Friday, then relegated mainly to northern and western areas this
weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  67  96  65 /   5  10  10  40
Dulce...........................  93  56  93  56 /  40  20  60  50
Cuba............................  94  59  91  59 /  30  40  10  40
Gallup..........................  96  60  91  59 /  10  20  50  50
El Morro........................  87  56  86  55 /  40  40  60  40
Grants..........................  94  56  90  55 /  30  50  40  30
Quemado.........................  88  59  86  58 /  50  30  60  20
Magdalena.......................  89  63  87  63 /  20  30  40  10
Datil...........................  86  58  84  58 /  40  30  30  10
Reserve.........................  92  58  91  58 /  50  20  30  10
Glenwood........................  96  62  97  62 /  40  20  10   5
Chama...........................  85  54  85  54 /  50  30  60  40
Los Alamos......................  84  62  87  63 /  20  30  20  20
Pecos...........................  90  57  91  57 /  50  30  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  86  56  87  56 /  20  30  40  20
Red River.......................  76  48  77  49 /  50  30  60  20
Angel Fire......................  79  38  81  40 /  50  30  60  10
Taos............................  88  49  90  53 /  20  30  30  20
Mora............................  85  54  86  55 /  50  20  50  20
Espanola........................  96  65  96  65 /  20  30  20  20
Santa Fe........................  89  57  90  61 /  40  30  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  91  56  92  60 /  20  30  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  64  93  64 /  20  40  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  67  94  67 /  20  30   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  65  96  65 /  20  30   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  64  96  65 /  20  30   0  20
Belen...........................  99  66  98  66 /  20  30   0  10
Bernalillo......................  97  65  96  66 /  20  40   5  20
Bosque Farms....................  97  64  97  64 /  20  30   0  10
Corrales........................  98  65  97  65 /  20  30   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  98  64  97  64 /  20  30   0  10
Placitas........................  92  63  92  64 /  20  40  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  97  68  96  69 /  20  30   5  20
Socorro.........................  99  67  97  66 /  20  20   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  63  89  64 /  30  40  20  20
Tijeras.........................  91  64  90  64 /  30  40  20  20
Edgewood........................  90  60  90  63 /  40  30  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  53  93  56 /  40  30  10  10
Clines Corners..................  86  57  87  60 /  40  30  10  10
Mountainair.....................  91  60  91  62 /  40  40  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  90  60  90  61 /  40  30  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  94  66  94  67 /  30  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  84  60  85  63 /  40  10  50   0
Capulin.........................  86  57  88  59 /  30  20  20  10
Raton...........................  90  56  93  56 /  40  30  10  10
Springer........................  92  56  94  57 /  30  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  85  54  88  57 /  40  20  20  10
Clayton.........................  92  64  96  65 /   5  10   5   5
Roy.............................  91  61  93  63 /  10  20   0   5
Conchas.........................  98  66 100  68 /   5  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  95  66  96  67 /  10  30   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  98  67 102  70 /   5  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  97  67  98  68 /   5  20   0   5
Portales........................ 100  68  99  70 /   5  20   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  98  69  99  70 /   5  20   0   0
Roswell......................... 104  72 103  71 /   0  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  96  65  96  66 /  10   5   0   0
Elk.............................  91  61  91  61 /  10   5  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44