424
FXUS65 KABQ 191734 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1132 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Rapid fire spread will be possible Saturday afternoon from
  incredibly dry conditions and strengthening westerly winds thru
  the northwestern quadrant of NM.

- Thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and east of the
  central mountain chain today. There is a moderate risk of heavy
  rainfall on recent burn scars near Ruidoso.

- A moderate heat risk remains for lower elevation areas of
  western and central NM today, and all lower elevation locales
  this weekend where highs will flirt with 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Abundant debris clouds from yesterday`s convective activity will
continue to clear across the forecast area early this morning.
Otherwise, a two-faced setup of moisture remains over the Land
Enchantment, drier west and humid east. Low clouds across
eastern NM with perhaps even some patchy fog over the central
highlands will try to develop this morning with success highly
dependent on clearing mid to upper level cloud cover. Today will see
a ridge of high pressure slide its axis over northern NM with
increasing shear along and east of the CO Rockies. Afternoon
thunderstorm activity moving southeast off the Sangre de Cristo`s
will have the opportunity to tap into the better shear, and there is
a marginal risk of severe storms clipping northeastern NM accounting
for this. Weaker steering flow and shear further south will allow
for shorter lived and slower storms, notably over the south-central
mountains near Ruidoso. There is a moderate risk for a storm
threatening heavy rain within 5-miles of the Ruidoso area burn scars
as a result. Otherwise, a few isolated virga showers will threaten
gusty and erratic winds up and down the Rio Grande Valley this
afternoon.

Saturday sees the ridge flatten with drier westerly winds advancing
the dryline eastward toward the TX line. High temperatures climb
back to the 90s, flirting with 100F again in Roswell. Very dry
conditions highlighted by 6-12 hours of single-digit humidity will
be present across western NM and into portions of the Rio Grande
Valley (see Fire Weather Discussion). Staying hydrated and having
the ability to cool will be important for those outdoor activities
this weekend. Regarding thunderstorm potential, there will only be
an isolated opportunity for an updraft to develop along the dryline
over far eastern NM Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Sunday begins the long term period with even drier conditions
areawide and warmer high temperatures thru eastern NM as the
aforementioned drier westerlies continue their advance eastward
into the TX Panhandle. More widespread low 100s will be present
thru eastern NM and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, nearly
all areas will see single-digit humidity with the longest durations
of 12 to 20 hours worth!

A cold front banked up thru the eastern plains of CO surges
southward Sunday night thru Monday morning, perhaps bringing gusty
east canyon winds to Santa Fe and Albuquerque to start the Monday
morning commute. High temperatures thru eastern NM fall 10F to 15F
back into the 80s and 90s alongside a significant influx of low
level moisture. The two-faced setup of dry west and moist east will
be the main story across the Land of Enchantment next week.
Afternoon thunderstorms will favor development each day along the
central mountain chain, pushing eastward over eastern NM as the
season`s first rendition of the monsoon high builds over southern
AZ. Storms moving eastward off the Sangre de Cristo`s will again
have the best chance to become severe thanks to higher shear values
there, with slower storm motions further south. High temperatures in
the 90s to low 100s will favor lower elevation areas across western
NM to start the week, spreading across eastern NM by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A few breezy west to southwest winds are expected to pick up here
through the afternoon hours, with the exception of south to
southeast winds across eastern NM. A few thunderstorms are forecast
to develop off of the central mountain chain after 18z today, which
will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds up to 40kts
in and around them. Some storm development is expected across the
Jemez Mountains as well near KLAM, which is forecast to drift off
towards KSAF, producing another batch of outflow winds. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms should drift off into eastern NM
through the evening, dissipating by 03z. A few leftover outflow
winds are forecast to push through the central mountain chain
later this evening, affecting KABQ and possibly KAEG. Elsewhere,
light winds remain overnight and are not expected to strengthen
again until near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Western NM: Dry and hot conditions remain for areas along and west
of the central mountain chain thru the next 7 days. Portions of the
Rio Grande Valley will see some brief relief in the form of
increased humidity this morning and Tuesday morning when moisture
across eastern NM advances thru the gaps of the central
mountain chain. Westerly winds will be the limiting factor for
critical fire weather conditions each day, with the exception of
Saturday as westerlies strengthen. Saturday RFTI`s are currently
forecast to reach 4 to 6 alongside very dry fuels highlighted by
ERCs reaching or surpassing the 90th or even 97th percentile. Deep
layer mixing reaching upwards of 12k-15k ft will also be a
concern for ongoing fires. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
from west- central to northwestern to north-central NM due to 6 to
12 hours of single-digit humidity alongside westerly winds of
15-22mph Saturday afternoon. Sunday sees even drier conditions
with 12 to 20 hours of single-digit humidity, but alongside weaker
westerlies.

Eastern NM: Scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity will
again favors areas along and the east slopes of the central mountain
chain today. Drier westerlies advance into the highlands today, and
to the TX border this weekend when highs again climb back into the
90s and low 100s. Elevated to short-lived critical fire weather
will reach the northeastern highlands just east of the Sangre
de Cristo`s Saturday afternoon. Single-digit humidity invades
eastern NM Sunday, but with modest westerly wind speeds. Cooler
temperatures and high humidity returns behind another cold front
Sunday night into Monday morning. Daily afternoon thunderstorm
activity Monday will focus over areas along and east of the Sangre
de Cristo`s, expanding further south each afternoon Tuesday and
beyond. A brief dip in high temperatures Monday will warm back up
thereafter as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  63  94  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  93  49  89  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  91  59  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  91  51  89  46 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  88  54  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  92  55  92  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  88  53  90  49 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  89  63  92  58 /  10   5   0   0
Datil...........................  86  57  88  52 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  93  49  93  50 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  97  54  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  86  49  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  88  65  89  58 /  20   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  89  57  89  55 /  20   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  86  57  86  50 /  10   5   0   0
Red River.......................  79  47  78  44 /  20  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  82  45  82  43 /  20  10   0   0
Taos............................  89  54  90  49 /   5   5   0   0
Mora............................  86  53  88  51 /  40  10   0   0
Espanola........................  95  63  97  55 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  90  64  90  57 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  93  61  93  55 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  97  71  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  68  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  67 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  69  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  99  65 101  62 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  99  69  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  99  65  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................ 100  69  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  99  66 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  95  69  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  99  69  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 100  69 102  65 /   0   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  63  91  58 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  92  63  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  93  61  93  57 /  10   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  58  94  55 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  89  57  90  57 /  20   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  93  60  93  58 /  10   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  91  61  92  60 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  93  65  95  66 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  85  60  87  62 /  50   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  82  52  89  54 /  50  20  10   0
Raton...........................  85  52  94  52 /  40  20   5   0
Springer........................  87  53  95  52 /  30  30  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  86  55  91  54 /  40  20   0   0
Clayton.........................  82  60  94  63 /   5  20  10   0
Roy.............................  81  57  93  57 /  20  30  10   0
Conchas.........................  89  62 101  64 /  10  30  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  86  61  97  65 /  20  30  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  86  64 100  68 /   0  30  10   0
Clovis..........................  85  64  97  67 /   0  20  10   5
Portales........................  86  64  99  68 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  90  65  98  67 /   5  30  10   0
Roswell.........................  95  68 101  67 /   0   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  91  62  96  66 /  40  10  10   0
Elk.............................  90  59  94  63 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ101-105-120-121.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...77