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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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106 FXUS65 KABQ 101921 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 121 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1254 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026 - A warm storm system will spread rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow mainly south of I-40 through early this evening with little rainfall and a few cloud-to- ground lightning strikes. - Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidities, and dry vegetation will increase the risk of rapid fire spread from Thursday into the weekend across eastern and portions of central NM. - A strong backdoor cold front will bring notably colder and brisk conditions to eastern NM on Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1254 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Meager convection this afternoon is confined to higher terrain areas of southern NM and parts of the southeast plains. High-res guidance began trending lower with precip chances in the past 24 hours so we`ll take what we can get at this point. Favored areas will still be the Sacramento Mts where highest probs for wetting precip (>0.10") exist. Showers and storms will also be capable of producing locally strong surface wind gusts given DCAPE values near 800 J/kg with strong winds aloft. Dry lightning strikes are also a concern with very dry vegetation in many areas. A sharp northwest wind shift will spread from western to central NM this evening as a Pacific cold front arrives in the wake of the departing upper wave. Persistent mixing behind the front will keep breezy northwest winds in place thru late this evening from the RGV westward. A backdoor cold front will then surge south into eastern NM tonight. Confidence decreased today on the coverage and duration of Wind Advisory gusts for eastern NM (>50 mph). However, several hours with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph is still expected along with perhaps some blowing dust. The evening crew will get a look at the 00Z guidance trends and may add a couple counties to a Wind Advisory, most likely Quay and Curry. Cooler temps are in store Wednesday in the wake of the backdoor cold front over eastern NM. High temps may even be closer to normal with highs in the 50s and 60s. Western NM will be similar to today with readings still peaking in the 60s and low 70s. Wednesday night will be another chilly night with widespread subfreezing low temps. Folks with early season garden plants and fruit trees are urged to take protective actions. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1254 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Thursday thru Monday will feature swift northwest flow aloft as a +3 standard deviation H5 ridge develops along the West Coast. Northwest breezes will persist each afternoon from the central mt chain east across the high plains. Very low humidity will also occur with these winds, leading to elevated risk for rapid fire growth in receptive fuels. Max temps will also trend 15 to 25F above normal by Saturday. A strong backdoor cold front is expected Sunday with sharply colder temperatures compared to Saturday. Some areas of northeast and east- central NM may be as much as 40F colder in the wake of this front, along with strong northerly winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026 A weakening upper level low over southern NM will spread showers and a few storms across southeast NM thru this evening with areas of icing, mt obscuration, and hi turb. Most of this activity will be brief with gusty outflow winds, a few lightning strikes, low VFR cigs, and perhaps localized blowing dust. Southwest winds will also increase over southeast NM with gusts of 30-40KT common btwn 2pm and 8pm. Meanwhile, a sharp northwest wind shift will enter western and central NM along a Pacific cold front this afternoon. Gusts of 25-35KT will occur along and behind the front thru late this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1254 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026 A relative break in the fire weather pattern will continue thru Wednesday with cooler temperatures and somewhat lighter winds. The exception will be northwest NM where areas of critical fire weather are likely with strong northwest winds and marginally low humidity. ERC values are near the 50th percentile in most of that area so a Fire Weather Watch will not be posted at this time. Another fire growing pattern returns Thursday thru Saturday over central and eastern NM under swift northwest flow, single digit humidity, above normal temps, and high ERC values. Fire Weather Watches will likely be issued either tonight or Wednesday for Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 63 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 63 20 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 33 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 63 22 69 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 61 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 30 66 22 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 33 62 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 40 66 36 70 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 36 62 31 67 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 67 27 73 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 32 73 30 78 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 26 58 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 39 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 62 27 65 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 59 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 23 51 18 56 / 5 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 55 16 58 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 26 63 22 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 59 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 36 70 29 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 39 63 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 36 66 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 73 33 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 37 73 30 77 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 41 72 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 36 73 29 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 43 72 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 37 73 31 76 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 43 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 46 75 37 78 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 67 30 69 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 37 67 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 67 26 69 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 61 28 64 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 36 66 31 68 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 37 65 31 68 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 40 70 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 62 34 63 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 52 24 68 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 29 59 21 71 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 30 61 24 72 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 59 25 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 35 55 28 73 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 57 26 72 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 64 30 80 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 62 29 74 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 64 29 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 42 63 31 74 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 41 65 29 74 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 65 30 77 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 45 71 37 76 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 45 68 32 76 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 41 68 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42 |
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