505
FXUS65 KABQ 181011
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
311 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

- A widespread high wind event is expected today, and will
  continue from the central mountain chain eastward tonight, with
  blowing dust, dangerous crosswinds, and some damaging wind
  gusts around 60 mph expected.

- Snow squalls and a flash freeze could make driving hazardous
  from the continental divide westward across north central,
  northwest, and west central New Mexico this afternoon and
  evening, then there will be a greater risk of snow squalls in
  the same area Friday morning.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid
  fire spread across northeast and east central areas today, then
  again across the east central plains on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Another high wind event is forecast today and tonight as a
vigorous upper level trough crosses the central and southern
Rockies and steers the polar jet stream over the forecast area.
Wind speeds at 700 mb will generally vary from 40-60 KT today,
while a ~992 mb surface low develops in the lee of the CO Rockies.
As a result, surface wind gusts to 50 mph will be common across
northern and central NM today, and along and east of the central
mountain chain tonight, except for gusts up to 45 mph on the
southeast plains. Stronger gusts around 60 mph are forecast over
the western mountains, and along and just east of the central
mountain chain. Wind Advisories or High Wind Warnings are in
effect for all except the southeast plains where the stronger flow
aloft won`t arrive until sunset, and the Tusas and Chuska
Mountains where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect due to the
combination of snow and wind. The day shift will need to monitor
the southeast plains closely today, including Chaves and Roosevelt
Counties, in case the stronger flow aloft arrives earlier than
expected making a Wind Advisory necessary there.

Critically low humidities are also forecast across northeast and
east central areas today, where a Red Flag Warning is also in
effect. Ongoing wildfires in Harding and southern Union Counties
could grow significantly under these conditions.

Snow amounts in the Tusas and Chuska Mountains should reach 1-3
inches, except up to 6 inches above 8500 feet. Most of that should
fall this afternoon and evening. There is a moderately high
probability (roughly 50%) that a blustery Pacific cold front
pushing through north central, northwest, and west central NM will
produce a few snow squalls late this afternoon and into the
evening resulting in a quick inch or two of snow along the
continental divide, and potentially as far west as Gallup and
Farmington. This would be accompanied by near zero visibility in
falling and blowing snow, as well as a flash freeze making auto
travel particularly hazardous. Those with travel plans across the
northwest third of NM are advised to consider traveling early or
delaying travel to avoid getting caught in this high impact but
sub Winter Weather Advisory scenario late this afternoon and
evening.

Additional disturbances will stream across the forecast area from
the west late tonight and Thursday keeping a 10-30 percent chance
of snow showers in the forecast along and west of the central
mountain chain. Any additional snow accumulation will be light
and favor the northern and western mountains. The flow aloft will
trend weaker while remaining fairly brisk on Thursday resulting
in west wind gusts generally from 30-40 mph over southern, central
and eastern parts of the forecast area. Locally stronger gusts up
to 50 mph are likely along and just east of the central mountain
chain, especially in the morning.

Otherwise, the recent cooling trend will continue today and
Thursday, with high temperatures bottoming out Thursday afternoon
from near 30-year averages on the far eastern plains to as much as
18 degrees below average across the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

The third upper level trough in the ongoing series will cross the
central and southern Rockies late Thursday night and Friday
morning with more snow and another round of strong winds. The
Pacific cold front with this system will dive into western NM
Friday morning with another potential snow squall. The snow
squall potential will be higher on Friday morning than it will be
this afternoon and evening due to greater instability on Friday
than will probably be observed this afternoon and evening. NAM12
depicts Lifted Indices on Friday from 0 to -3 along the
continental divide of northwest NM with CAPE around 200 J/KG,
suggesting there may even be a few lightning strikes with the
vigorous snow showers. However, there won`t be a flash freeze
since temperatures will already be below freezing when the snow
starts. A few inches of snow again look likely in the northwest
mountains, except up to 6 inches in the Tusas Mountains, as well
as a quick inch or two as the blustery Pacific cold front moves
gradually upslope from Gallup and Farmington to the continental
divide. The latest forecast models have strengthened the wind
speed forecast for Friday, when gusts from 40-50 mph now look
likely, except potentially around 60 mph in spots along and just
east of the central mountain chain. A ~989 mb surface low in the
lee of the CO Rockies should crank up the winds again across
northeast and east central NM.

A ridge of high pressure will develop over the southwest US
Saturday into Tuesday with dry weather and warming temperatures.
After high temperatures below average areawide on Saturday,
readings will climb near to several degrees above 1991-2020
averages on Monday, and around 4 to 18 degrees above the averages
on Tuesday. Winds will be significantly lighter than those
observed this week, while remaining seasonably gusty across
eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Winds have weakened around the region, with most areas below 15
kts as of 06Z. Moist upslope flow has resulted in the development
of mid-level clouds and scattered snow showers in and around the
western and northern high terrain and this will likely persist
through the overnight hours, with intermittent light snow showers.

Strong southwest/west winds are likely again Wednesday afternoon,
with gusts of 30 to 50 kts commonplace across the entire region.
Generally speaking, winds will be slightly weaker than Tuesday in
eastern NM and slightly higher in central and western areas. A
Pacific cold front will intrude from the west around 18Z, surging
eastward toward the Rio Grande Valley shortly after 00Z. A brief
period of stronger winds and blowing dust/snow are possible along
the leading edge of the front, with winds shifting around to the
west/northwest in the evening. Strong winds will persist into the
evening hours tomorrow in eastern NM as the front sweeps across
the plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Sub-15% humidities are forecast today across the eastern plains
and as far west as the lower Rio Grande Valley. ERCs are also
forecast to vary from the 50th to 95th percentile across eastern
areas, where a Red Flag Warning is again in effect. We cancelled
the Fire Weather Watch that was in effect for today in the Middle
Rio Grande Valley, since ERCs are forecast to be below the 50th
percentile. However, humidities as low as 12 percent in Socorro
County will result in a few to five hours of critical fire weather
conditions. Humidities around 20 percent are forecast farther
north in the Middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Locally
critical fire weather conditions are again forecast Thursday on
the eastern plains with marginally critical wind speeds in most
places. We will monitor a couple of wildfires in Harding and
southern Union Counties for growth during today`s wind event, and
will consider issuing a Red Flag Warning for Thursday across the
northeast if the fires are actively growing, or if the wind speed
forecast strengthens for Thursday. Wind speeds are forecast to
become strong again on Friday, so a Fire Weather Watch will be
issued for the east central plains on Friday afternoon with this
forecast package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  17  37  27 /  60  30  20  60
Dulce...........................  37   7  31  13 /  90  70  40  80
Cuba............................  44  15  34  19 /  60  80  50  40
Gallup..........................  40  11  38  19 /  50  50  40  30
El Morro........................  40  16  36  19 /  40  60  40  20
Grants..........................  46  15  41  17 /  20  50  30  10
Quemado.........................  45  21  42  23 /  10  40  30   0
Magdalena.......................  51  28  47  27 /   0  10  20   0
Datil...........................  44  24  42  24 /   0  20  20   0
Reserve.........................  48  26  45  22 /  20  50  40   5
Glenwood........................  53  30  48  22 /  20  50  50   5
Chama...........................  32   2  24  10 /  90  80  30  60
Los Alamos......................  45  19  37  23 /  40  60  30  30
Pecos...........................  48  18  38  19 /  20  50  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  38  13  32  17 /  60  60  20  20
Red River.......................  30   7  24  11 /  70  70  20  30
Angel Fire......................  36   4  29   7 /  50  70  20  20
Taos............................  43  13  35  16 /  60  60  20  20
Mora............................  46  15  39  16 /  20  60  10  10
Espanola........................  52  20  42  19 /  30  40  20  30
Santa Fe........................  47  21  38  24 /  30  60  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  50  20  41  22 /  20  50  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  29  47  31 /  10  40  30  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  27  49  28 /   5  30  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  27  51  25 /   5  20  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  27  48  27 /  10  20  20   5
Belen...........................  60  27  53  24 /   0  20  20   0
Bernalillo......................  58  27  48  27 /  10  30  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  59  25  51  23 /   0  20  20   5
Corrales........................  58  27  49  26 /  10  30  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  59  26  52  24 /   0  20  10   5
Placitas........................  54  26  44  28 /  10  40  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  56  26  48  27 /  10  20  20  10
Socorro.........................  62  31  57  27 /   0  10  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  23  41  26 /  10  50  30  10
Tijeras.........................  51  25  43  27 /  10  40  30  10
Edgewood........................  53  23  44  22 /   5  30  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  21  46  17 /   0  30  10   5
Clines Corners..................  50  20  41  22 /   0  20   5   5
Mountainair.....................  55  25  47  23 /   0  20  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  55  25  49  24 /   0  10  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  57  32  54  32 /   0  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  50  31  48  31 /   0   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  49  18  43  14 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  50  18  45  14 /   0  10   0   0
Springer........................  54  21  47  14 /   0  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  50  20  43  19 /   5  20   0   0
Clayton.........................  60  26  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  55  24  50  20 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  65  31  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  29  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  68  31  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  68  33  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  69  34  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  31  59  23 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  70  35  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  62  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  61  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
for NMZ201-203-204-206-207-209-211-216>222-224-225-241.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Thursday for
NMZ230>232-234-235-237.

High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening for NMZ205-208.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM MST
this evening for NMZ202-210.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ212>215-223-226>229-233-239-240.

Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for NMZ126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44