503
FXUS65 KABQ 111147 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today, fueled by
  moisture from ex-Tropical Storm Priscilla, will yield a Marginal
  to Slight risk of flash flooding along and west of the central
  mountains. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Farmington and
  the Four Corners area through this afternoon.

- Flooding of small creeks, streams. and arroyos, as well as low-
  lying areas, will be a concern in areas with persistent
  rainfall over the next several days. Elevated flows in main stem
  rivers are also possible.

- A back-door cold front, along with moisture from Tropical Storm
  Raymond, brings a return to flash flood risk, along with below
  normal temperatures across central and eastern NM, for Monday
  into Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A mild October night is ongoing across the Land of Enchantment,
with surface dewpoints in the 50s F statewide (except at higher
elevations). Areas of light rain with isolated embedded moderate
showers continue to stream north/northeastward over western NM at
this hour, per composite radar trends. Overall, QPF for today has
trended down slightly, even in northwestern NM, from this time
yesterday. Per recent RAP analysis, H25 jet streak is still back
over the CA deserts, so not providing as much widespread lift as
of yet. Remnant vort max from now ex-TS Priscilla appears to be
over northern Baja at this time. Moreover, H7 flow is currently
still due southerly, not quite tapping the deepest tropical
moisture.

All that being said, will preserve the ongoing Flood Watch for the
Northwest Plateau, including Farmington and the Four Corners,
through 6 PM MDT this evening. Both RRFS and GFS indicate a linear
precip feature marching across western NM this morning, providing
a focusing/forcing mechanism, plus the fact that at least one
instance of flooding impact was reported in the watch area
yesterday. Short-term guidance/CAMs still keeping precip
bullseyes just north of the Colorado border, focused on the
western slopes of the Tusas/San Juan mountains. While not in the
watch proper, northwestern Rio Arriba County, including areas such
as Dulce, will be an area to keep an eye on today. QPF signal
diminishes in the watch area after 00Z, so ending time looks
reasonable. Finally, SPC is maintaining a Marginal risk (Level 1
of 5) for severe storms over much of San Juan and western portions
of McKinley counties today, with wind gusts of up to 60mph the
main threat.

There is also a 15-20% chance of urban flooding in the ABQ Metro,
per the latest WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard, based on the 2-year
recurrence interval precip amount. Latest HRRR run has timing of
the aforementioned linear feature moving into ABQ between 19-23Z,
with outflow boundaries possibly keeping showers around another
couple of hours beyond that. Up-basin storm motions (west-to-east)
could also exacerbate arroyo system rises. Evening activities at
the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta are likely to be
impacted.

Meanwhile, lee-side troughing in eastern NM keeps above normal
temps in place, with highs in the 80s, to go along with breezy to
gusty southwest winds. Gusts are forecast to reach 35-40mph in
Union and Colfax counties this afternoon. Lastly, CAMs indicate
shower activity moving over the Ruidoso burn scars overnight,
roughly between 03-09Z. NBM 5.0 75th percentile QMD QPF amounts
are only a tenth or two, as much of the burn areas should be
"shadowed", with most rain squeezed out on the western slopes of
the Sacramento Mountains.

Precip/QPF has likewise trended down further for Sunday, as drier
air sweeps across the northern half of NM. WPC has left only the
far southwest portion of the CWA in a Marginal Risk on Sunday`s
ERO. Any off burn-scar flooding issues would likely be confined
to the southwest mountains, though the Ruidoso area will need to
watched, with a gradient in QPF amounts nearby (higher to the
south). A Flood Watch may still be required.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A back-door cold front is still progged to move into NM from the
northeast on Sunday night. It seems to have a little less
"juice"/upper level support vs. 24 hours ago, but should still
eventually make its way to the Continental Divide, with Monday afternoon
high temps 5-15F below normal behind the front. An easterly gap
wind is probably in the cards for ABQ, so NBM wind speeds were
increased later Monday into Monday night. Although the surface
airmass behind the front is actually drier than the one it will be
moving into, the boundary will help to trigger scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly from Monday afternoon,
continuing overnight, and into mid-day Tuesday. The frontal
boundary will be interacting with a renewed moisture tap,
including some with origins from current Tropical Storm Raymond.
Latest NHC forecast has this storm dissipating as a tropical
entity over Sonora state on Sunday, but the tap between a mid-
upper high centered over the TX coast and another closed low over
northern CA keeps the moisture pumping in, with the deepest layer
RH progged to move across the state Monday night. Monday is still
expected to be an impactful day, in terms of flash flood
potential, though WPC`s latest ERO has a Marginal Risk area over
much of NM along and west of the central mountains, with embedded
Slight Risk areas near the Tusas and Gila mountains. A moderate
risk of flash flooding for Ruidoso should persist as well.
Although the moist plume gradually becomes more diffuse later
Tuesday into Wednesday, there will still be isolated to scattered
storms, favoring the northern mountains with some localized
flooding risk.

Long-range guidance in pretty good agreement that the upper-
low/trough lifts out from the Great Basin over the Four Corners
region toward Thursday, with H7 gradients suggesting a breezy to
windy day. A drier atmospheric column also sweeps in with the
attendant Pacific front. The associated back-door segment of the
front brings in cooler air. The main polar jet lingers closer to
the Desert Southwest into next weekend, suggesting a
cooler/drier/windier pattern...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Similar trends in place to previous set of TAFs, with moisture
from ex-TS Priscilla moving eastward into central NM as individual
shower elements move toward the northeast. KFMN/KGUP likely to dip
to MVFR, as more widespread rain/embedded shower activity moves in
from AZ. Latest HRRR model is more bullish in bringing a more
coherent linearly organized convective feature across those
terminals from mid-late morning, with brief IFR in heavier
showers. KGUP also briefly dropped to IFR visibility within the
past two hours. Despite short-term guidance being on board,
confidence is only low-moderate on this continuing until sunrise.
Calm winds there have also led to LLWS conditions currently.
Light/disorganized rain and showers to move into KABQ/KSAF
vicinities around mid-morning as well, with aforementioned line
most likely moving through from 21-24Z. Low confidence on the line
maintaining itself long enough for showers to reach KTCC or KROW
this evening. Gusty S/SW winds will be more of the story there.
Good chance of LLWS developing late Saturday night at KTCC as
well, assuming winds can decouple enough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
seven days, with much of the state seeing wetting rain between now
and Tuesday. Elevated conditions, owing to wind, are likely over
the northeastern plains of NM for a few hours on Saturday
afternoon, due to southwest winds gusting to 35-40mph. However,
RHs and fuel states won`t be supportive of fire growth. A Pacific
storm system brings more wind and drier air next Thursday. Minimum RHs
trend lower (around 20%) Thursday in western NM, expanding to much
of the state next Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  70  53  69  50 /  80  60  10  10
Dulce...........................  62  44  66  36 / 100  80  30  20
Cuba............................  63  47  66  44 /  90  50  60  10
Gallup..........................  67  49  67  43 /  90  70  40  10
El Morro........................  65  49  64  46 /  80  60  60  20
Grants..........................  68  49  68  46 /  80  40  70  20
Quemado.........................  69  50  67  47 /  80  40  60  30
Magdalena.......................  72  52  70  52 /  80  40  60  40
Datil...........................  69  49  67  47 /  80  40  50  50
Reserve.........................  74  51  71  50 /  80  70  60  50
Glenwood........................  79  54  75  52 /  80  70  60  60
Chama...........................  58  42  62  36 /  90  70  40  20
Los Alamos......................  64  51  67  49 /  80  50  40  10
Pecos...........................  65  48  67  45 /  70  40  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  63  47  66  43 /  60  40  20  10
Red River.......................  56  41  58  34 /  60  30  20  20
Angel Fire......................  63  37  63  27 /  60  30  20  10
Taos............................  67  47  69  40 /  60  40  20  10
Mora............................  66  44  68  40 /  60  30  20  10
Espanola........................  70  52  73  47 /  70  50  30  10
Santa Fe........................  66  51  67  50 /  70  40  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  69  50  70  48 /  70  40  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  57  70  57 /  70  40  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  74  56  72  56 /  70  40  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  75  55  75  55 /  70  40  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  57  72  56 /  70  40  30  20
Belen...........................  77  54  75  53 /  60  40  40  30
Bernalillo......................  74  56  73  54 /  70  40  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  76  53  74  53 /  70  40  30  30
Corrales........................  74  56  73  55 /  70  40  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  76  55  75  54 /  70  40  40  20
Placitas........................  71  55  70  53 /  70  40  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  73  56  72  56 /  70  40  30  20
Socorro.........................  78  57  76  57 /  60  40  50  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  68  50  66  49 /  70  40  40  30
Tijeras.........................  69  52  68  51 /  70  40  40  30
Edgewood........................  71  49  69  46 /  60  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  72  47  71  45 /  60  40  30  30
Clines Corners..................  67  50  68  45 /  50  40  20  30
Mountainair.....................  70  52  69  49 /  60  40  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  70  52  69  50 /  50  40  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  75  57  71  55 /  30  40  50  50
Ruidoso.........................  69  53  65  51 /  20  50  60  60
Capulin.........................  71  50  74  40 /  10  10   5  10
Raton...........................  74  47  77  42 /  20  10   5  10
Springer........................  76  48  78  44 /  20  10   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  69  50  71  43 /  40  20  10  20
Clayton.........................  79  57  82  50 /   5  10   5  10
Roy.............................  74  52  78  48 /  10  10   5  10
Conchas.........................  82  57  83  54 /  10  10   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  78  55  79  52 /  20  20  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  82  57  83  52 /  10  10   5  20
Clovis..........................  82  60  80  58 /  10  10  20  40
Portales........................  83  60  81  58 /  10  10  20  40
Fort Sumner.....................  81  57  81  56 /  10  10  10  30
Roswell.........................  85  61  81  61 /  10  20  30  50
Picacho.........................  80  57  77  56 /  20  30  40  50
Elk.............................  76  55  72  53 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for NMZ201.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...11