058
FXUS65 KABQ 302030
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- A heightened risk of flooding continues across north central and
  northeast New Mexico today. Continue to expect waves of showers
  and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. Have multiple ways
  to receive warnings.

- Localized river flooding will continue Wednesday. Low-lying
  farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers
  may experience minor flooding.

- Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times each morning through
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A closed Low is currently located over western NM this afternoon and
will continue its trek eastward across the state today, with the
center reaching the TX border around Midnight. Bands of
precipitation will rotate around the center of the Low, with the
most persistent rain on the north side where upper-level dynamics
are most favorable. Rainfall rates will generally be on the light
and moderate side, but could briefly reach rates up to 1"/hour as
has already been seen late this morning. Short-term model guidance
is in good agreement that the highest rain totals will focus over
Taos, Mora, and Colfax Counties where 1-2" is likely. 12-hour totals
may exceed 3" over a small area in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,
but rainfall rates will remain a limiting factor for higher totals.
Given the soaking rain over the past few weeks, there will be a
threat of landslides, particularly in steep areas along the
Enchanted Circle. While persistent rain will focus over northern NM,
scattered showers and storms are likely under the Low and along the
backside today as where brief clearing will help some instability
build up. As a result, an isolated instance or two of flash flooding
could occur in western and central portions of this state this
afternoon. Rain will taper off from west to east overnight, with
showers continuing through the early morning hours in the far
northeast corner of the state.

Northerly flow on the backside of the exiting low will send a
boundary into eastern NM, with gusty north to northeast winds in the
plains north of I-40. The wind gust forecast remains just below Wind
Advisory criteria (50 mph), but trends will be monitored for
issuance with the next forecast package. Showers and even a few
storms may develop Thursday afternoon along the leading edge of the
aformentioned boundary as it pushes into central NM. Upslope flow
will favor the Sacramento Mountains so rain chances stick around
through the evening and overnight hours, but intensity will remain
very light so flooding will not be a concern.

Patchy fog may develop both Thursday and again Friday morning due to
lingering ponding and very wet soils. Mountain valleys in western NM
will be the favored area Thursday morning, with northern mountain
valleys favored Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The center of the retrograding upper-low will center itself over far
northern NM on Friday, keeping upslope flow in place over the
Sacramento Mountains. There will also likely be a low cloud deck
across the eastern plains, which will keep high temps down, with
highs running 10 to 15 degrees below average. The pleasant Fall
weather will continue into the weekend as temperatures slowly
moderate close to seasonal averages. Dry weather with mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies will continue through the weekend. Ridging
will amplify over the Intermountain West early next week, keeping
the warming trend going.

Zonal to northwest flow will attempt to squash this ridge Tuesday.
Given the very positive tilt of the trough, it would likely
struggle to draw significant sub-tropical moisture northward.
Neither ensemble system is bullish on widespread rainfall, with all
showing less than 0.25" areawide. Amplified ridging will likely
persist over the western CONUS through the end of next week,
favoring dry weather and near to slightly above average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers with embedded storms are rotating around a closed Low
centered around KGUP as of 18Z. This Low will trek eastward today,
reaching the northeast corner of the state around 09Z tonight.
Showers along with a few storms will generally favor the northern
third of the state, although brief showers are likely south of
I-40 this afternoon as well. As a result, MVFR to IFR cigs will be
more persistent in northern NM and rather brief in southern
areas. The NBM is trying to bring persistent MVFR to IFR
conditions to much of central and northern NM during the evening
and overnight, but confidence is low to moderate for persistent
low cigs at this time. Showers will end from west to east
overnight, lingering in northeast areas through the end of the TAF
period. A strong north breeze will develop in northeast NM early
tomorrow morning, spreading southward towards KROW by late
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rain showers today will favor northern NM, with additional rainfall
totals of 0.5-1.5". Amounts will be lower across western and central
areas where accumulations will generally be less than 0.5". Showers
and storms end from west to east overnight, persisting through the
morning in the northeast corner of the state.

Gusty north winds (gusts of 25 to 45 mph) will develop overnight in
northeast New Mexico, spreading into southeast New Mexico by the
afternoon and evening. Other than a few showers in south-central
areas, dry conditions will prevail Thursday afternoon through the
weekend as temperatures gradually moderate. There are low chances of
precipitation areawide Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Patchy fog may develop both Thursday and Friday mornings, with
western mountain valleys favored Thursday morning and northern
mountain valleys favored Friday morning. Patchy morning fog may
continue through the weekend in a few areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  73  51  75 /  40   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  73  39  74 /  50   0   0   0
Cuba............................  43  67  44  66 /  50   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  69  44  71 /  30   0   0   0
El Morro........................  41  67  42  66 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  44  67  44  67 /  30   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  67  44  67 /  20   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  64  47  63 /   5  10  20   0
Datil...........................  43  62  43  61 /   5   0  10   0
Reserve.........................  45  75  46  74 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  79  51  80 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  64  40  70 /  70   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  46  63  44  66 /  70   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  66  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  41  61  38  69 / 100   5   0   0
Red River.......................  35  52  35  61 / 100  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  35  56  34  64 / 100  20   0   0
Taos............................  41  63  41  70 / 100   0   0   0
Mora............................  43  62  41  65 /  90   5   0   0
Espanola........................  47  70  43  73 /  80   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  45  64  43  66 /  60  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  66  44  67 /  40  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  70  47  72 /  40  10  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  70  49  72 /  40  10  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  72  50  73 /  40  10  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  71  48  72 /  40  10  10   0
Belen...........................  51  71  50  72 /  30  20  10   0
Bernalillo......................  51  72  47  73 /  40  10   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  72  48  73 /  30  10  10   0
Corrales........................  51  72  49  73 /  40  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  51  72  47  73 /  30  10  10   0
Placitas........................  49  68  46  70 /  40  10   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  51  71  49  72 /  40  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  51  73  50  73 /  10  20  20   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  63  43  65 /  40  20  10   0
Tijeras.........................  46  66  45  68 /  40  20  10   0
Edgewood........................  45  65  44  65 /  30  20  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  67  40  67 /  30  20   5   0
Clines Corners..................  44  63  44  62 /  30  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  44  64  44  63 /  30  20  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  45  64  44  63 /  30  10  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  69  50  66 /  20  10  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  44  63  45  58 /  20  20  30  30
Capulin.........................  42  55  42  63 /  90  70  20   0
Raton...........................  44  61  44  68 /  90  50   5   0
Springer........................  47  64  41  68 /  90  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  62  42  65 /  70   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  51  63  50  65 /  90  50  20   0
Roy.............................  47  65  44  67 /  70   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  55  74  52  73 /  50   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  70  52  67 /  20   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  72  53  68 /  30  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  53  73  54  67 /  10  20  10   5
Portales........................  55  74  54  68 /   5  20  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  57  74  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  55  77  57  70 /   0  10  20  20
Picacho.........................  50  72  51  65 /   0  20  30  40
Elk.............................  47  71  49  64 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ203-210-211-
213>217-227-228-230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16