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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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620 FXUS65 KABQ 151215 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 615 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 - Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low water crossings through this week, especially along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, due to melting snow. - Smoke from the Greer Fire in Arizona could create hazy conditions with lower air quality for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Sensitive groups such as the elderly and those with respiratory conditions will be impacted by the poor air quality. - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when there will be an increased risk of rapid fire spread. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 213 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 West and southwest winds will be gusty today, but not nearly as strong as the past couple days. A weak disturbance passing north of NM, and a surface trough in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, will produce the strongest winds over northeast and east central areas this afternoon, where peak gusts will reach around 40 mph. In between weather systems on Friday, the lee-side surface trough will weaken and winds will follow suit. Peak gusts Friday should only reach 20 to 30 mph, again favoring northeast and east central areas. In the wake of Wednesday`s strong Pacific cold front, high temperatures today will vary from near 30-year averages to as much as 11 degrees below them, with the greatest departures over the Four Corners area. Readings will then warm a few to 7 degrees above today`s highs on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 213 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 There is slower movement with the Baja shortwave, and now it is modeled to approach NM Friday night before crossing the state on Saturday. Some increased mid level moisture does arrive with this feature, but it will likely be pushing east and exiting out of eastern NM by early Saturday evening. Given the timing differences and low confidence, no virga or sprinkles have been built into the forecast for Saturday, but this will be something to watch for with subsequent forecast model runs. Otherwise, breezy conditions, primarily from the southwest, will prevail Saturday while temperatures gain a couple to a few degrees. Upstream there will be a deeper trough moving into the Great Basin. This trough will lift into the central Rockies of CO/WY on Sunday with a stout 100 kt jet at 300 mb preceding it. This along with a very deep surface low (~986-990 mb) over the eastern border of CO will induce very strong surface winds over northern and central NM Sunday afternoon, especially along and east of the central mountain chain. Winds will shift from southwesterly to westerly as a Pacific front treks passes over the state. Any appreciable moisture or dynamics with the shortwave and front will stay confined to north central to northwestern NM, but the overall footprint of QPF does seem to have expanded slightly south and west from earlier model runs. Another upper low will move from the Pacific Northwest states and dive into the Four Corners region Monday as its predecessor lifts into the high plains of WY/NE. The tracks of the orbiting and pinwheeling lows have evolved over the past several model runs with their interaction with one another having implications on precip and wind placement. Latest runs push the strongest gradient aloft farther south while expanding precip farther south. This would bring rain and high elevation snow showers to more of northwestern and north central NM Monday afternoon with a few thunderstorms accompanying. Winds would start out southwesterly again before veering more westerly and even northwesterly into Monday night as another front moves through and drops temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal for most of the forecast area (largest deficits from normal would be in western zones). The polar jet relaxes considerably thereafter, but breezy conditions will be slow to fully subside into Tuesday with temperatures unable to climb all the way back to normal. A strong surface high would then potentially build over the central to southern plains of the nation Wednesday and Thursday, but no significant moisture advection looks to arrive, leaving NM with less wind and more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 West and southwest winds will become gusty again this afternoon until sunset, especially across northeast and east central areas along and north of I-40, where peak gusts will reach around 35 knots. Smoke from the Greer Fire in eastern AZ will travel northeastward over southwest NM, probably reaching the I-25 corridor between Albuquerque and Socorro around 00Z. The smoke plume is then forecast to sag southward and stretch from west- central Catron County to south-central Socorro County tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 ...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOME AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Critically low humidities are forecast through the end of the week. A weak disturbance passing north of NM today, and a lee-side surface trough, will return peak gusts around 40 mph to northeast and east central areas this afternoon. The WFAS Forecast Fire Danger Class and SWCC-provided ERCs indicate low-to-moderate fire danger with these wind speeds there today. This is supported by subjective reports of ample green-up received on Wednesday from a few ranchers across northeast areas. After lighter winds between weather systems on Friday, winds will begin to strengthen again Saturday with a 50% chance of locally critical fire weather conditions in Socorro County, where severe drought is ongoing and there wasn`t much precip received a couple weekends ago. An upper level trough will sweep through the Four Corners Sunday followed quickly on its heals by a somewhat moist upper level low pressure system that will move over northwest NM on Monday. These systems look to produce a mix of dry and wet (with small wetting footprints) showers and thunderstorms over northwest areas Sunday, then over north central and western areas Monday. The storm systems will also steer a series of moderate speed maximums in the polar jet stream over the fire weather forecast area with peak southwest wind gusts from 35-50 mph Sunday, then similar gusts mainly over southern and eastern areas Monday. After high temperatures peaking from near to 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages Saturday, readings will trend below average with the passage of gusty Pacific cold fronts both Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 39 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 63 28 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 65 35 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 68 30 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 64 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 70 32 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 68 35 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 72 43 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 69 38 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 76 32 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 79 37 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 58 29 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 65 43 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 64 41 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 62 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 53 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 58 28 63 27 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 66 30 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 64 37 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 73 40 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 66 42 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 50 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 76 45 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 79 44 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 76 46 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 79 42 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 77 45 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 78 40 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 78 45 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 78 42 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 72 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 76 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 82 48 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 68 42 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 70 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 70 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 71 35 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 66 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 70 40 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 70 40 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 75 48 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 46 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 66 37 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 71 36 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 71 37 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 68 39 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 74 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 71 41 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 77 44 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 44 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 78 46 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 50 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 80 48 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 46 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 87 54 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 49 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 48 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44 |
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