440
FXUS65 KABQ 062320 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
420 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 408 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Unsettled weather conditions with rain, snow, and bouts of
  strong winds are forecast Wednesday night through Friday with
  lowering snow levels. Confidence is increasing (50-70%) in the
  development of accumulating snow and winter driving conditions
  across high terrain areas and northern New Mexico, especially
  Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

- The coldest air so far this season will arrive Friday into
  Friday night with low temperatures dropping into the single
  digits to mid teens. These cold temperatures will impact those
  without adequate housing or heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

It`s a splendid early January day across the Land of Enchantment with
temperatures slightly above average, patches of high clouds and
light winds for most. Mid to high level clouds will increase in
coverage tonight into Wednesday as a closed low approaches northern
Baja California. Increasing 700 mb winds of 25 to 30 kts across much
of northeast and east central NM will result in a breezy Wednesday
for this part of the state. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 5
to 10 degrees above average across western and central NM with
eastern plains locales 12 to 16 degrees above average due to the
downslope westerly winds. Precipitation will move into southwest NM
late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as the upper low
moves east and begins to open up over Sonora, Mexico.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

The weakening upper low over Sonora, Mexico (system #1) Wednesday
evening will move across New Mexico as an open wave trough Wednesday
night through midday Thursday morning. As it does so an area of
lower elevation rain and mountain snow will move across the forecast
area. Snow levels during this period will be around 7,000 to 7,500
feet with 700 mb temperatures around -3 to -5 deg C. Any noteworthy
snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches from system #1 will be
limited to the mountain peaks above any population areas and
commerce routes, so advisories will likely not be needed from this
first system. However, areas like U.S. 60, I-40 and U.S. 550 at the
Continental Divide and I-25 at Glorieta Pass could see a slick
Thursday morning commute due to snowfall accumulations of around an
inch. Perturbed westerly flow behind system #1 and a deepening upper
level trough over the Great Basin (system #2) will keep orographic
snow showers going across the west slopes of the western and central
mountains during the day Thursday. Thursday will be a colder day by
around 10 to 15 degrees compared to Wednesday across western and
central NM. Still relatively mild (5 to 10 degrees above average)
across eastern NM Thursday due to downslope westerly winds in the
wake of system #1. Potential (10 to 20%) for west wind gusts of
around 50 to 55 mph across the central and south central highlands
of eastern Torrance, western Guadalupe and northeast Lincoln County
midday Thursday.

System #2 over the Great Basin Thursday dives southeast and closes
off into an upper low over the Four Corners area late Thursday night
with 700 mb temperatures as low as -9 to -12 deg C under the core of
the low. These colder temperatures along with lift under the low
will allow snow showers to move into western and central NM Thursday
evening through Friday morning. This snow will have an easier time
to accumulate and be more impactful to travel on area roads and
highways. Right now, advisories will be likely (>60%) for the
mountain ranges of western and central NM with low probabilities (20
to 30%) for the nearby western and northwest highlands and upper
RGV. As the upper low moves along I-40 Friday morning, attention
turns to northeast NM. A potent backdoor front will push south
through this part of the state early Friday morning with surface
cyclogenesis occurring and a nearly stacked low with height between
Santa Rosa and Tucumcari around sunrise. Some wraparound moisture
along with a TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) on the north and
northwest quadrants of the low circulation will result in bands of
moderate to heavy snow across the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, and northeast highlands and plains Friday morning
through late Friday afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates will be
across Raton Pass and much of Union County. A tight surface pressure
gradient will result in strong north wind gusts of around 30 to 45
mph with the strongest wind gusts across Raton Pass and Union
County. Will let this evening/overnight shifts issue a Winter Storm
Watch for far northeast NM. With the wind gusts mentioned above and
resultant visibility below 1/2 to 1/4 mile, a Blizzard Warning is
not out of the question for the Raton Pass and Union County zones.
With these winter weather to near blizzard conditions, potential
exists for temporary road closures like I-25 at Raton Pass and U.S.
64/87 between Raton and Clayton. No surprise, Friday will probably be
one of the coldest days of this winter season so far with highs in
the upper 20s to around 40 for most of the forecast area and mid 40s
to near 50 for the southeast plains.

Snow across northeast NM should taper off Friday evening as the
upper low weakens/opens and races northeast towards the central U.S.
Strong cold air advection behind the system along with fresh snow
cover will result in the coldest night of the 2025/2026 Winter
Season so far with lows in the single digits to mid teens. Places
like Gallup and Taos will likely bottom out around 0 with Angel Fire
potentially getting to the low negative teens! These really cold
temperatures will impact those without shelter and/or heating. Some
locations across central NM like Grants, Socorro, Santa Fe and
Moriarty could get very close to Cold Weather Advisory Criteria. A
cold and sunny Saturday in the wake of the system with lower
elevations in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures slowly warm back
up to near normal readings for mid January with mostly clear skies
and light winds early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

Ceilings will gradually lower from southwest to northeast through
the TAF period. VFR conditions will prevail through around 21Z,
with lower clouds moving into the southwestern portion of the area
towards the very end of the TAF period. Conditions will continue
to deteriorate after 00Z tomorrow as showers and much lower
ceilings move into the area. In addition, a light southwest to
south breeze will develop in eastern areas tomorrow afternoon,
with light winds less than 10 kts elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

No critical fire weather conditions expected through early next
week. Mild and dry through tomorrow afternoon. Rain and mountain
snow across the state Wednesday evening through mid Thursday morning
as a initial system moves across the state. A brief break in
precipitation for most with some breezy to windy conditions and
elevated fire weather across east central New Mexico during the day
Thursday. A second system brings snow across western and central NM
Thursday evening through Friday morning and then moderate to heavy
snow/blowing snow across northeast NM and the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains Friday morning and Friday afternoon. Much
colder areawide Friday and Saturday with the coldest temperatures of
this winter season expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Dry
with gradually warming temperatures early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  51  30  42 /   0   5  50  70
Dulce...........................  19  50  23  37 /   0   5  70  90
Cuba............................  25  49  26  37 /   0  10  70  80
Gallup..........................  20  49  28  38 /   0  10  70  80
El Morro........................  27  49  27  36 /   0  30  80  70
Grants..........................  23  52  27  41 /   0  20  70  60
Quemado.........................  28  50  27  40 /   0  60  70  70
Magdalena.......................  36  52  30  44 /   0  40  80  40
Datil...........................  31  48  27  39 /   0  50  80  50
Reserve.........................  24  53  28  41 /   0  80  80  80
Glenwood........................  28  57  31  45 /   0  90  80  80
Chama...........................  20  44  20  31 /   0   0  50  80
Los Alamos......................  30  47  29  39 /   0   5  60  60
Pecos...........................  28  51  28  42 /   0   5  60  40
Cerro/Questa....................  28  47  24  37 /   0   0  30  40
Red River.......................  24  39  20  31 /   0   0  30  40
Angel Fire......................  18  47  20  34 /   0   0  40  40
Taos............................  20  51  25  39 /   0   0  40  40
Mora............................  28  54  26  44 /   0   0  50  30
Espanola........................  23  54  29  44 /   0   0  50  50
Santa Fe........................  31  49  29  40 /   0   5  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  28  51  29  43 /   0   5  60  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  53  34  46 /   0  10  70  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  33  54  34  48 /   0  10  70  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  31  57  33  50 /   0  10  70  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  33  54  33  48 /   0  10  60  50
Belen...........................  28  55  33  51 /   0  20  70  50
Bernalillo......................  32  56  34  49 /   0  10  70  50
Bosque Farms....................  28  56  32  50 /   0  20  70  60
Corrales........................  32  56  33  48 /   0  10  70  50
Los Lunas.......................  29  55  33  50 /   0  20  70  60
Placitas........................  34  52  33  45 /   0  10  70  60
Rio Rancho......................  33  54  33  47 /   0  10  70  50
Socorro.........................  34  58  33  52 /   0  30  80  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  49  30  43 /   0  10  70  60
Tijeras.........................  32  50  32  43 /   0  10  70  60
Edgewood........................  30  53  31  45 /   0  10  70  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  23  55  30  47 /   0  20  70  40
Clines Corners..................  28  52  30  43 /   0  10  70  30
Mountainair.....................  31  53  31  45 /   0  20  80  50
Gran Quivira....................  31  53  31  47 /   0  20  80  40
Carrizozo.......................  36  58  34  49 /   0  40  90  30
Ruidoso.........................  37  53  32  44 /   0  40  80  30
Capulin.........................  28  57  26  46 /   0   0  20  10
Raton...........................  26  59  26  50 /   0   0  20  10
Springer........................  25  61  29  53 /   0   0  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  29  57  30  48 /   0   0  40  20
Clayton.........................  36  65  35  55 /   0   0  40   5
Roy.............................  30  61  32  54 /   0   0  30   5
Conchas.........................  33  67  36  61 /   0   0  50   5
Santa Rosa......................  37  63  37  56 /   0   5  70  10
Tucumcari.......................  37  69  38  62 /   0   5  60   5
Clovis..........................  36  68  38  60 /   0   0  80   5
Portales........................  35  69  39  61 /   0  10  80   5
Fort Sumner.....................  33  65  38  59 /   0  10  70   5
Roswell.........................  35  69  39  64 /   0  10  70   5
Picacho.........................  38  66  38  57 /   0  20  70  10
Elk.............................  35  63  34  54 /   0  20  70  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16