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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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860 FXUS65 KABQ 201811 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1211 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - A marginal risk exists for severe storms across Union County later this afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary threats. - A backdoor cold front will bring fall-like temperatures to eastern New Mexico Tuesday and then spread westward into Wednesday. - A Pacific system will approach from the west toward the end of the work week, bringing improved chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a Pacific dry air intrusion from SoCal east through AZ and into NM. This will continue into Sunday and PWATs are forecast to tumble today into tonight. Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon across the southern high terrain, but scattered storms are forecast across Colfax and Union Counties where a threat for strong to severe storms exists given 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts, a weak surface boundary to provide additional forcing and sbCAPE values of 1500 J/kg. This scenario is of relative higher probability over Union County, where the SPC day 1 outlook shows a marginal risk for severe storms. Convection will gradually wind- down across far northeast NM through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Sunday is looking even less active with a weak mid level ridge moving east over NM. Daytime temperatures will warm a couple of degrees on Sunday relative to today and generally be above average across central and eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 The upper level ridge axis will shift east of NM Monday, clearing the way for an upper level trough/low to drop southeast from the Pacific NW into the central Rockies. PWATs are still forecast to increase Monday as the upper level ridge axis shifts east and a Pacific low deepens offshore of SoCal, steering Pacific moisture into western NM. However, that signal isn`t as strong as what was being advertised by the 12Z model solutions from yesterday. As a result, our PoPs have trended down some Monday. We have increasing forecast confidence on a backdoor cold front moving down the eastern plains Monday night into Tuesday, then being reinforced late Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low over the central Rockies ejects out over the central US plains. Both the latest NAM and GFS show very little qpf over our area Tuesday as the ejecting upper low steers drier air aloft over northern NM. The backdoor front may interact with lingering moisture across southern NM on Wednesday to produce showers and storms over the southern high terrain, but otherwise Wednesday is looking more and more like a down day. An upper level ridge will follow on Thursday and PWATs will be back on the uptrend going into Friday as the Pacific low moves from SoCal toward the lower Great Basin and Desert SW. This Pacific low has the potential to be a weather maker for NM Fri/Sat as the upper level ridge shifts east and PWATs surge in advance of the approaching Pacific low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with mostly light winds. Isolated showers and storms this afternoon and early evening will be confined to far northeast NM and the southern high terrain and are not forecast to impact TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Some warming and drying of the atmosphere is forecast through the weekend, with only isolated wetting storms confined to far northeast NM and the southern high terrain. A backdoor cold front will move down the eastern plains Tuesday and spread west into central NM Wednesday, bringing temperatures down to below average. A Pacific system will approach toward the end of the week, bringing increased humidity and improved chances for wetting rain on Friday and Saturday, especially to central NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 82 58 76 / 0 0 10 20 Dulce........................... 38 79 43 73 / 5 0 10 20 Cuba............................ 46 78 50 73 / 0 0 20 30 Gallup.......................... 46 80 51 74 / 0 0 20 30 El Morro........................ 47 77 51 73 / 0 5 20 40 Grants.......................... 47 82 51 78 / 0 0 20 50 Quemado......................... 48 79 51 75 / 0 10 20 50 Magdalena....................... 53 81 56 79 / 0 5 10 50 Datil........................... 48 77 51 75 / 0 5 20 50 Reserve......................... 48 85 52 84 / 5 10 20 40 Glenwood........................ 53 89 57 88 / 5 10 10 30 Chama........................... 40 73 43 68 / 5 0 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 52 77 54 73 / 0 0 10 30 Pecos........................... 49 77 51 75 / 0 0 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 75 48 72 / 10 0 5 20 Red River....................... 38 66 40 63 / 10 0 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 33 71 35 68 / 10 0 5 20 Taos............................ 43 79 46 76 / 5 0 5 20 Mora............................ 44 74 46 72 / 0 0 5 20 Espanola........................ 48 84 51 80 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 52 78 55 75 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 82 52 79 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 84 62 81 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 86 59 83 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 88 59 85 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 86 60 83 / 0 0 10 30 Belen........................... 53 88 56 86 / 0 0 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 55 87 59 84 / 0 0 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 52 87 56 84 / 0 0 5 30 Corrales........................ 56 88 59 84 / 0 0 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 54 87 57 84 / 0 0 5 30 Placitas........................ 56 82 58 79 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 56 87 59 83 / 0 0 10 30 Socorro......................... 58 90 61 88 / 0 0 5 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 78 53 76 / 0 0 5 30 Tijeras......................... 53 80 55 77 / 0 0 5 30 Edgewood........................ 48 80 51 79 / 0 0 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 82 48 81 / 0 0 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 50 77 53 76 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 51 80 53 79 / 0 0 5 30 Gran Quivira.................... 51 80 53 80 / 0 0 5 30 Carrizozo....................... 57 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 53 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 46 75 48 76 / 40 5 0 20 Raton........................... 46 80 47 79 / 30 0 0 10 Springer........................ 46 82 48 81 / 10 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 48 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 55 82 55 86 / 30 5 0 10 Roy............................. 50 81 51 82 / 10 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 55 88 56 89 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 53 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 54 85 56 89 / 5 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 60 90 60 92 / 5 0 0 5 Portales........................ 60 91 60 93 / 5 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 57 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 61 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 57 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 55 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11 |
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NWS Albuquerque, NM (ABQ) Office Forecast Discussions.
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