908
FXUS65 KABQ 200021 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
621 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 550 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the threat of
  rapid fire spread in northeastern New Mexico this afternoon.

- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms Monday will result in
  gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph and patchy blowing
  dust. Low chance of new fire starts from dry storms.

- There is moderate to high confidence in widespread critical fire
  weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. This will increase
  the threat of rapid fire spread with any fire starts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

It`s another dry day out there around central and northern New
Mexico with humidities already in the 10-20% range. Moisture is
beginning to surge in from the south, however, as evidenced by an
increase in clouds over Chihuahua and Sonora. Cloud bases will
gradually lower from south to north overnight, with the most
dramatic change in the southeast plains where deeper moisture will
get pushed in from the Gulf. Isentropic lift could generate a few
sprinkles and light rain showers in the southeast around sunrise,
with very little to no accumulation. This moisture will also
interact with a subtle westerly shortwave Monday afternoon,
producing isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms.
Coverage will focus over the Southwest Mountains, with precip.
struggling to push north of I-40. Since westerly flow will be so
weak, any convection that does develop will move quite slowly so
that does increase the potential for wetting rainfall where storms
develop. Most areas likely won`t receive more than a hundredth or
two, but localized pockets of a quarter inch are likely at the same
time. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern, but DCAPE values
generally in the 500-1000 J/kg suggests damaging winds and
significant blowing dust are unlikely. Gust potential is actually
highest in the Eastern Plains where coverage will be quite limited
and cloud bases will be very high. Clouds will clear quite quickly
Monday evening as dry air pushes in from the west, allowing for good
radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Tuesday should be one of the quieter days of the week as a strong
Pacific trough begins to deepen over the West Coast. This will
further amplify of the ridge over the Rockies, surging temps up
several degrees in what should be the warmest day of the week for
most areas (except the Eastern Plains). The upper-level trough will
slide eastward into The Great Basin on Wednesday, placing
increasingly strong southwest flow over New Mexico. All ensemble
means are showing 700mb winds of 25 to 35 kts, with the GEFS
slightly stronger than the other ensemble systems. Flow turns more
westerly Wednesday night into early Thursday, which should keep
gusty winds going through the night along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo mountains. There could be some mtn wave activity in
this area as well, but model guidance does not currently show a
sufficiently stable layer at crest level for the development of
crashing mountain waves. Thursday will once again be breezy to windy
with the strongest winds in eastern NM following the passage of a
dry Pacific cold front.

Quasi-zonal flow looks to persist over the desert southwest Friday
into the weekend. Since the sub-troipical jet will remain to the
south, winds should weaken quite a bit, with typical Spring breezes
prevailing. The pattern looks to remain progressive over the western
CONUS into the weekend, with the development of another longwave
trough likely. Some models are showing this trough skirting northern
NM over the weekend into the early part of next week, bringing some
light precip. to the northern mountains. Given the high disagreement
in storm track and lack of precip. even in the models that show a
deeper trough, any substantial rainfall looks unlikely. Better
chances will likely arrive mid-next week as the storm track shifts
further south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Late tonight through Monday morning, low VFR and patchy MVFR
ceilings are forecast from the Caprock southward including Clovis,
Portales, and Roswell. Increasing Gulf moisture will enable MVFR
ceilings to become more persistent around Clovis and Portales
during late afternoon and into Monday night. In addition, isolated
to widely scattered light rain showers will drift northward over
south central and southeast areas late tonight through early
Monday morning, with a roughly 15 percent chance of developing
over KROW and KSRR. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are then forecast from midday through Monday
afternoon along and south of I-40 with spottier activity northward
to Highway 60. There will be some gusty virga showers and dry
thunderstorms in the mix with stronger cells capable of producing
localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Coverage of
showers and storms will then gradually decrease Monday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are underway in northeastern NM
this afternoon. Winds are slightly stronger than previously
forecast, with gusts as high as 45 mph in Clayton already. Moisture
will surge in from the south overnight into Monday, resulting in
better RH recoveries than the past few days, especially in the
southeast. A mix of wet and dry storms and gusty virga showers are
likely in western and south-central NM tomorrow afternoon, but
overall coverage will be isolated to widely scattered and wetting
rainfall will be hard to come by. Hi-res models suggest a few slow-
moving showers over the Southwest Mountains could produce localized
areas of 0.25" as they slowly shift off to the west. The risk of dry
storms and potential fire starts remains low, but cannot be ruled
out, particularly just north of I-40 where cloud bases will be
higher and dewpoint depressions greater.

After relatively quiet conditions Tuesday, fire danger concerns rise
again on Wednesday as New Mexico comes under the influence of a
Great Basin trough. Dry southwest flow will prevail across the
state, with the strongest winds across the high terrain of northern
New Mexico. Widespread critical fire weather conditions look likely
now, with the highest danger across the northeast where 7-10% RH
will overlap with 25 to 35 mph sustained winds. A cold frontal
passage will shift winds around to the west on Thursday, which could
potentially be even drier across the Eastern Plains thanks to
downsloping. While winds may decrease below Red Flag thresholds
across the west, central and eastern NM are likely in for another
day of critical fire weather. Winds trend weaker Friday into the
weekend, with typical Spring breezes each afternoon. Light precip.
chances remain in the forecast for northern NM over the weekend into
early next week, but wetting rain chances remain very low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  77  45  79 /   0   5   5   5
Dulce...........................  30  73  36  75 /   0   5   5  10
Cuba............................  37  71  41  74 /   0  20  10  20
Gallup..........................  36  73  36  75 /   0  20  10   5
El Morro........................  39  67  39  72 /   5  40  10  10
Grants..........................  36  71  37  76 /   0  40  10  10
Quemado.........................  40  68  41  74 /  10  50  10   5
Magdalena.......................  44  69  47  74 /  10  40  20  10
Datil...........................  40  67  42  72 /  10  50  20  10
Reserve.........................  36  75  36  78 /  10  50   5   0
Glenwood........................  40  79  38  82 /  10  40   5   0
Chama...........................  32  65  35  69 /   0  10   5  20
Los Alamos......................  44  68  48  72 /   0  20  10  20
Pecos...........................  37  70  40  74 /   0  30  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  36  67  37  72 /   0  10  10  20
Red River.......................  31  57  33  62 /   0  10  10  20
Angel Fire......................  22  64  25  68 /   0  20  10  20
Taos............................  31  71  35  75 /   0  10  10  20
Mora............................  34  67  37  73 /   0  20  20  20
Espanola........................  39  76  44  80 /   0  20  10  10
Santa Fe........................  42  69  44  74 /   0  30  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  40  72  43  77 /   0  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  72  53  80 /   0  20  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  74  52  81 /   0  20  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  76  48  84 /   0  20  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  76  49  82 /   0  20  10  10
Belen...........................  43  78  45  83 /  10  30  20  10
Bernalillo......................  45  75  47  82 /   0  20  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  42  75  43  83 /   5  30  10  10
Corrales........................  45  76  48  83 /   0  20  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  43  75  42  83 /   5  30  20  10
Placitas........................  47  71  51  77 /   0  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  47  74  51  82 /   0  20  10  10
Socorro.........................  48  78  51  84 /  10  30  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  67  47  74 /   0  30  20  10
Tijeras.........................  45  68  48  75 /   0  30  20  10
Edgewood........................  40  67  44  77 /   0  30  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  71  33  78 /   0  30  20  10
Clines Corners..................  39  67  42  73 /   0  40  20  10
Mountainair.....................  41  69  45  76 /  10  40  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  40  68  43  75 /  10  40  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  45  71  49  77 /  20  40  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  40  65  43  70 /  20  50  20  20
Capulin.........................  34  69  39  75 /   0   0   5  10
Raton...........................  31  74  36  79 /   0   0   5  10
Springer........................  32  74  36  80 /   0   5   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  35  68  39  75 /   0  20  10  10
Clayton.........................  42  76  46  81 /   0   0   5   0
Roy.............................  37  70  41  79 /   0  10  10  10
Conchas.........................  41  76  46  87 /   0  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  40  72  45  82 /   0  20  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  44  76  49  86 /   0  20  10   5
Clovis..........................  44  70  47  83 /   0  30  20  10
Portales........................  43  78  47  85 /   5  30  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  42  71  47  85 /   0  30  20  10
Roswell.........................  46  71  51  84 /  20  30  20  20
Picacho.........................  41  69  45  80 /  20  40  20  20
Elk.............................  38  65  42  78 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44