143
FXUS65 KABQ 172056
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
156 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Damaging west and southwest winds will continue along and east
  of the central mountain chain today with hazardous crosswinds
  and blowing dust as far west as the continental divide.
  Hazardous southwest wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will return to
  much of northern and central New Mexico on Wednesday.

- Snow accumulation and blowing and snow will produce snowpacked
  and icy roads, as well as snow drifts, in portions of the
  mountains today, Wednesday, and Friday, and probably also at
  lower elevation of north central and western New Mexico on
  Friday.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid
  fire spread across northeast and east central areas today, then
  again on Wednesday as far west as the middle Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

An unsettled pattern will persist through Friday as the polar jet
remains especially strong and oriented across the southwestern
states. This will keep perturbations crossing over, or just north
of, NM with strong winds continuing to mix down to the surface via
diurnal mixing today and more slated for Wednesday. Several
locations have already exceeded 60 mph gusts so far this afternoon
with the Raton airport being the highest at 72 mph. Winds will
slowly decrease late in the afternoon with a quicker reduction in
speed around and after sunset. Blowing dust and reduced visibility
will also continue to remain a concern through sunset. Precipitation
has already been downsized considerably behind the Pacific front
with steady to periodic snow continuing over the northern mountains
through the afternoon, and much of this will then subside or retreat
farther north around sunset with the exception of the high peaks of
the Tusas near the NM-CO border. This will be such a small minority
of the zone, that the current Winter Storm Warning should be fine to
expire on schedule this evening with impacts mostly shifting
northward out of our forecast area. Colder overnight temperatures
will then be on tap for tonight behind today`s earlier Pacific front.

Into Wednesday, the jet will steer another shortwave into UT and
western CO by late in the day. This will keep precipitation largely
at bay through the late morning and early afternoon Wednesday
(except over the far northern mountains along the NM-CO border where
strong orographics will persist), but by late afternoon enough PVA
and cooling aloft will arrive for additional rain/snow to develop
over west central, northwestern, and north central zones. This could
potentially warrant a brief Winter Weather Advisory late Wednesday
through Wednesday evening over the northern mountains with a few (3
to 6 and locally up to 10) inches of additional snow accumulations.
Elsewhere, wind will be the primary story for Wednesday, and while
speeds will not be as high as what has been observed today, there is
still moderate to high potential for damaging gusts of 60 mph along
portions of the central mountain chain and nearby highlands. A belt
of 35 to 70 kt southwesterly flow at 700 mb is progged to sag into
NM as the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches the Rockies,
and a new, deep surface cyclone will set up in eastern CO during the
day. Therefore, it seems prudent to issue a High Wind Watch for
several central higher terrain zones, and subsequent shifts will
likely need to add many surrounding zones to a Wind Advisory where
gusts will not be as severe, but still reaching 50 mph. The 700 mb
flow does not relax much at all through Wednesday night, just
focusing the strongest speeds of 50 to 65 kt over the eastern half
of the forecast area, so wind statements will likely need to carry
through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

The polar jet remains over NM and the southwestern states through
Thursday, ushering in another weak shortwave trough in by late
afternoon. This shortwave does not currently appear to be quite as
vigorous as its predecessors, but will still introduce enough
forcing for a light smattering of precip. POPs have been fairly
broadbrushed with a light hue of 20 to 30% across western to north
central zones, and minimal accumulation is projected. Interestingly,
the 700 mb flow does show indications of weakening considerably
Thursday, reducing to 25 to 40 kt over much of NM, and this will
consequently reduce our gust potential. It will still be windy,
particularly over northeast to east central NM, but gusts of 35 to
45 mph will seem more palatable compared to preceding days.
Surrounding areas will stay more in the breezy to windy category
with gusts of 20 to 35 mph being commonplace Thursday afternoon.

A deep upper level low over the Pacific Northwestern states will
shed a vort max southeastward Thursday that will then make its way
toward the Four Corners by Friday. This wave will pack more of a
punch with a notable thermal trough accompanying, and this will
yield a tenth to a quarter of an inch of QPF (translating to roughly
3 to 6 inches of additional mountain snow) over northwestern to
north central zones. Wind speeds will also increase again Friday,
but there are some inconsistencies with the placement of the 700 mb
jet and lee-side surface low which will dictate the severity of the
winds. Temperatures will have been inching below normal by a few
degrees Thursday and Friday over most zones with the eastern plains
hanging onto more seasonable readings.

Temperatures will cool a few degrees more into Saturday in the wake
of the late Friday frontal intrusion, but otherwise a respite from
the unsettled pattern will arrive as a ridge builds over the Rockies
through the weekend. Dry conditions will hold through Monday and
Tuesday of next week, but breezes will likely start to increase as
the ridge breaks down, succumbing to stronger zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Unsettled weather conditions will persist across northern and
central New Mexico with aviation hazards being focused on strong
to damaging winds, blowing dust, mountain snow in northern areas
of the state, and also obscurations of peaks. Wind gusts of 35 to
50 kt will be common across much of northern and central New
Mexico through sunset with the strongest gusts found in eastern
areas of the state. Areas of blowing dust will limit visibility,
especially over the east central plains where it may reduce as low
as 1 to 3 miles. Overall, rain and snow will decrease in coverage
through the afternoon and early evening with the northern
mountains seeing the most persistent snow with IFR (ceilings
below 1,000 ft) or LIFR conditions (ceilings below 500 ft). Winds
will reduce around sunset, but will increase again from the
southwest late Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Very windy conditions continue this afternoon, especially across the
eastern half of NM. In the wake of today`s earlier Pacific cold
front, temperatures have dropped and humidity has increased with
many locales hovering at or above 20 percent which will continue to
lower the critical threat through the late afternoon. Winds will
decouple and subside around sunset, so this will squelch any
remaining critical outliers this evening.

Unfortunately, the strong to severe winds will redevelop Wednesday,
as a speed max aloft persists and another lee-side surface low takes
shape. Lowering dewpoints will carry RH back down into critical
ranges below 15% over the eastern plains, and this remains the area
of highest confidence for widespread, long duration critical
conditions Wednesday. More marginally critical RH values (15 to 20%)
are still slated for the middle to lower Rio Grande valley
(Albuquerque to Socorro), and these marginal RH values along with
lower ERC values are keeping confidence lower for widespread,
long duration critical conditions there. Satellite Land
Information Systems soil moisture products are also indicating a
mosaic of 25 to 35% sub surface relative soil moisture, and in
contrast, the eastern plains are ranging much lower from 10 to
25%. Based on this information, will hold off on upgrading the
current Fire Weather Watch for the FWZ 106.

Although not as strong as preceding days, Thursday`s winds could
also pose concerns over northeast to east central areas where
humidity will also lower to a 15 to 20% range. The winds strengthen
more into Friday with the area of lowest humidity sagging southward
into the east central plains south of I-40. Will not issue any
Watches just yet, but both days will warrant close attention.

Fortunately, winds and the critical threat relax considerably into
the upcoming weekend as a ridge aloft builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  32  46  21  38 /  20  80  40  20
Dulce...........................  24  42  11  35 /  70  90  70  40
Cuba............................  23  45  18  37 /  10  50  70  40
Gallup..........................  24  43  16  38 /  10  70  60  30
El Morro........................  22  43  21  36 /   0  40  60  30
Grants..........................  20  48  19  42 /   0  30  50  20
Quemado.........................  24  47  23  43 /   0  20  30  20
Magdalena.......................  29  52  30  50 /   0   0  10  10
Datil...........................  24  46  25  44 /   0   5  20  20
Reserve.........................  24  50  26  46 /   5  30  50  30
Glenwood........................  26  55  30  49 /   0  20  50  30
Chama...........................  21  34   8  27 /  70  90  70  40
Los Alamos......................  27  45  22  38 /   5  40  70  30
Pecos...........................  21  47  20  40 /   5  20  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  25  38  15  32 /  30  60  70  20
Red River.......................  22  32  13  27 /  30  70  70  20
Angel Fire......................  20  36   9  30 /  30  50  70  20
Taos............................  23  43  17  37 /  30  60  70  20
Mora............................  22  46  17  39 /   5  30  50  20
Espanola........................  24  52  22  44 /  10  40  60  30
Santa Fe........................  25  49  24  41 /   5  30  60  30
Santa Fe Airport................  24  53  22  45 /   5  20  50  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  33  55  31  47 /   0  10  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  57  30  49 /   0  10  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  25  59  24  52 /   0   5  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  29  57  29  49 /   0  10  30  20
Belen...........................  26  61  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
Bernalillo......................  29  57  27  49 /   0  10  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  24  60  26  52 /   0   5  20  20
Corrales........................  28  58  27  49 /   0  10  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  25  59  28  53 /   0   5  20  20
Placitas........................  31  54  29  45 /   0  10  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  29  57  29  48 /   0  10  30  20
Socorro.........................  29  63  33  59 /   0   0   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  50  26  42 /   0  10  40  30
Tijeras.........................  29  51  28  43 /   0  10  40  30
Edgewood........................  26  52  27  44 /   0   5  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  54  24  46 /   0   0  20  10
Clines Corners..................  24  49  23  41 /   0   0  20  10
Mountainair.....................  26  54  27  47 /   0   0  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  25  55  27  49 /   0   0  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  31  58  33  53 /   0   0   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  30  51  31  48 /   0   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  24  51  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  23  52  21  46 /   0   0  10   0
Springer........................  24  55  22  49 /   0   0  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  23  51  22  44 /   0   5  20   5
Clayton.........................  31  61  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  26  56  25  50 /   0   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  30  66  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  62  31  53 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  32  67  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  32  67  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  30  69  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  29  66  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  33  70  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  33  63  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  31  61  34  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ212-215-
221>223-226>240.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-126.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ104-123-
125-126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ207-208-211-
216>220-224-225.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ106.

Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ210-213-
214.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night for NMZ215-223-226-229-233-239-240.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ202.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52