192
FXUS65 KABQ 100738
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
138 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

- Lightning and strong winds from thunderstorms along the central
  mountain chain and nearby highlands this afternoon and early
  evening. A few storms across the south central high terrain
  could produce severe wind gusts and large hail.

- Gusty north winds across eastern New Mexico this morning and
  east canyon winds across central New Mexico this evening will
  result in difficult crosswinds for high profile vehicles.

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive
  populations Tuesday from record temperatures in the 90s across
  lower elevation areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Moisture out ahead of a shortwave trough remains draped over New
Mexico tonight. Radar is picking up on some very light echoes out
there. although very little to no precipitation is likely reaching
the ground. Localized and very brief gusty outflow winds will
continue to remain a possibility through the night. A backdoor front
has just pushed into far northeastern NM and will continue its trek
south and westward through the night, with increasing north to
northeast winds in its wake. Hi-res models are showing the strongest
winds occurring around sunrise in the east-central plains, with max
gusts in 40 to 50 mph range. While a few gusts over 50 mph cannot be
ruled out, most guidance is keeping winds below this threshold (Wind
Advisory) so no hazards have been issued. The front`s progress will
be stalled right along the east slopes of the central mountain chain
late morning, acting as the lifting mechanism for a crop of showers
and storms in the afternoon.

Scattered convection will develop over the high terrain, drifting
eastward into the adjacent highlands during the afternoon hours.
Ensemble mean wind shear is in the 30-40KT range and this combined
with sfc based CAPE of 300-600 J/kg will be enough for some strong
storms and there is a low chance of storms briefly intensifying to
severe levels, with strong outflow wind gusts the main hazard of
concern. Most hi-res models are showing storms dissipating as they
move into the plains as they move off the frontal boundary. The lone
exception may be in the southeast plains where a few hi-res models
are showing a storm or two making it as far east as Roswell by the
evening hours thanks to a pocket of enhanced lift provided by a N/S
oriented jet streak.

In addition, convection along the central mountain chain will push
the backdoor frontal boundary westward through the gaps of the
central mtn chain. Wind gusts will likely peak late afternoon in
both Albuquerque and Santa Fe, but the gusty winds will continue
through the evening into the overnight hours as the cooler and more
moist airmass spills into the Rio Grande Valley.

Quiter conditions prevail around the region on Monday as ridging
builds in over the desert southwest. Temperatures will warm a few to
as much as 20 degrees from Sunday`s highs, with the biggest rises in
the east where temps will be much cooler Sunday thanks to low cloud
cover. There is a low chance of an isolated shower or two in the
Sacramento mtns during the afternoon hours Monday, but almost no
rainfall is expected to reach the ground with dewpoint depressions
in excess of 40F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Ridging will shift overhead Monday into Tuesday, increasing
temperatures and keeping winds light. 500 mb heights peak on Tuesday
around 591 dam and could exceed the 99th percentile of climatology
per NAEFS. As a result, a few record highs could be threatened and
pockets of moderate heat risk will develop along the Rio Grande
Valley and in the eastern plains.

The ridge will begin to break down Wednesday into Thursday as the
sub-tropical jet moves overhead again. This will increase south to
southwest winds, but temperatures will not drop significantly since
the breeze will create downsloping winds. The passage of a trough to
the north could generate a few high-based showers on Thursday
afternoon, with gusty outflow winds being the main concern and any
wetting rainfall unlikely. Then, quasi-zonal flow develops over the
weekend. The strength of the flow will determine whether there are
any storms, with weaker flow allowing for return flow from the Gulf
to sneak into eastern NM. All ensemble means are showing higher
dewpoints next weekend into the early part of the following week
into eastern NM, but the signal remains washed out given model
differences in the strength of the subtropical jet over the desert
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Isolated gusty virga showers and associated outflow boundaries are
still present around central and northern NM so localized and very
brief strong wind gusts upwards of 40 kts cannot be ruled out
through the overnight hours. A strong backdoor front will enter
the northeast corner of the state around 07Z, diving south and
westward overnight. Gusty north to northeast winds will be present
across much of eastern NM, with the strongest winds south of I-40
in the eastern plains. MVFR cigs will develop in the wake of the
front, but will generally be confined to the northeast corner of
the state between 12Z and 18Z.

Scattered showers and storms will develop along the central
mountain chain between 18Z and 21Z Sunday afternoon, moving
eastward into the adjacent highlands later in the afternoon.
Strong outflow wind gusts will be the main concern with this
activity and it will help to push the cold front westward through
the gaps of the central mtn chain. There is around an 70% chance
that an AWW will be needed at KABQ for Sunday afternoon/evening.
Other than a lingering shower or two, most convection should end
by 03Z Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are unlikely through next weekend.
A strong backdoor front will bring strong north to northeast winds,
cooler temperatures, and higher humidity to eastern NM today. The
front will reach the central mountain chain this afternoon where
scattered showers and storms will focus. Strong to damaging
outflow winds will be the main hazard with any storms that
develop. Outflow boundaries will push the frontal boundary west
through the gaps of the central mountain chain this afternoon and
evening, creating strong east/southeast winds at the base of
canyon openings. East winds will push all the way to the Cont.
Divide but they will struggle to progress much further than that
tonight. A warming trend is likely early next week as ridging
shifts overhead. This will result in very dry conditions, with
single digit humidity in most areas on Tuesday. This will also
decrease mixing heights somewhat, with afternoon ventilation fair
to good in most areas.

The ridge will break down mid-next week, resulting in the
development of a south to southwest breeze and the potential for a
few high based showers in the afternoon. Winds look to be the
strongest on Thursday afternoon, but even then sustained winds
should generally remain below 25 mph. Quasi-zonal flow will develop
Friday into the weekend, with dry and breezy conditions creating
widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. There
is a low chance of dry line storms in far eastern NM this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  81  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  78  34  82  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  76  39  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  79  37  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  78  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  80  42  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  79  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  78  47  80  52 /   5   0   5   0
Datil...........................  77  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  87  42  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  91  46  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  73  34  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  74  47  78  54 /  10   0   5   0
Pecos...........................  70  38  79  46 /  50   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  70  39  76  46 /  20   0   0   0
Red River.......................  59  34  67  41 /  40   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  63  28  72  34 /  70   5   0   0
Taos............................  74  34  80  40 /  20   0   0   0
Mora............................  64  38  78  47 /  70  10   5   0
Espanola........................  80  44  85  49 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  73  44  78  51 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  77  42  81  48 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  50  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  48  85  54 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  47  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  45  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  85  48  87  54 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  44  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  86  48  88  55 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  45  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  79  50  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  85  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  88  52  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  45  79  54 /  20   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  77  45  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  40  82  50 /  20   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  76  36  83  44 /  20   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  68  39  79  48 /  30   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  75  41  81  51 /  20   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  74  42  79  50 /  20   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  77  49  82  56 /  20   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  70  46  76  53 /  40  10  20   0
Capulin.........................  56  34  76  43 /  20   0   0   0
Raton...........................  63  36  82  43 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  66  37  84  43 /  30  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  66  40  81  46 /  70  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  61  40  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
Roy.............................  64  39  79  47 /  20   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  71  42  87  52 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  70  41  83  49 /  20   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  70  42  86  55 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  67  43  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  70  43  84  52 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  73  42  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  80  50  82  54 /  20  20   0   0
Picacho.........................  75  47  81  51 /  20  20   0   0
Elk.............................  76  45  82  50 /  30  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16