302
FXUS65 KABQ 302017
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
217 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of
  New Mexico through Friday, retreating to northwest and far west
  central New Mexico this weekend before expanding back east
  early next week.

- Higher coverage of thunderstorms across central and eastern New
  Mexico Friday and Saturday before lowering early next week.
  Storms on Friday and Saturday will be capable of producing
  damaging wind gusts and large hail along with locally heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A 598 dam upper high at 500 mb is currently squarely over central NM
this afternoon. This is resulting in another day of hot temperatures
across lower elevations with mid 90s to low 100s across western and
central NM and mid 100s across southern and eastern NM. Heat
Advisories are in effect in for the ABQ Metro, eastern San Miguel,
Quay and De Baca Counties, and Chaves County Plains this afternoon
due to temperatures around 100 for the ABQ Metro and 105 for the
eastern zones. Subsidence under the high will limit scattered
thunderstorms to the western and south central mountains along with
far northeast NM due to a weak disturbance rotating around the
northeast periphery of the upper high. Any shower and thunderstorm
activity should taper off early this evening across the western and
south central high terrain and just after sunset across far
northeast NM.

An upper level disturbance over the northern Great Plains this
afternoon will move east to over the upper Mississippi River Valley
tomorrow. This will help shift the 598 to 599 dam 500 mb high to
over Arizona as well as push a backdoor front through areas along
and east of the central mountain chain come late Friday morning.
Higher moisture in the form of PWATS around 1 to 1.3 inches behind
the backdoor front will help set the stage for a greater coverage
of showers and storms first across the east slopes of the central
mountain chain midday before moving east-southeast across the
eastern highlands and plains later in the day. Storms along and east
of the central mountain chain will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall as well as severe hail and damaging wind gusts due to
effective bulk shear values of 35 to 40 kts. Storms across the
Sacramento Mountains Friday afternoon appear to move brisk enough to
the southeast to keep the heaviest rainfall just south and east of
Ruidoso. For that reason, have opted to not issue a Flash Flood
Watch for the zone and will let the evening and overnight shifts
reassess. Drier northwest flow around the upper high will help drop
PWATS to around 0.5 to 0.8 inches for locations along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley keeping conditions dry and hot across this
part of the state. Heat Advisories have been issued for Farmington,
Albuquerque, and Socorro to the expected high temperatures in the
low to mid 100s. A Heat Advisory has also been issued for the
Roswell area due to expected temperatures around 105 south of the
backdoor front. Some isolated to scattered showers and storms still
expected across the southern Gila Mountains and lower RGV Friday
afternoon and evening due to higher moisture of PWATS around 1 inch
lingering across this part of the state. Storms along and east of
the central mountain chain will help push the backdoor front through
the gaps of the central mountain chain resulting in a strong east
canyon wind at canyon openings into the RGV. The MET guidance at
KABQ is showing potential for wind gusts up to 55 mph late Friday
evening, so a Wind Advisory may need to be issued in subsequent
shifts due to the convective nature of this east canyon wind. Storms
across eastern NM look to persist well into the overnight hours
Friday into Saturday while the backdoor front continues pushing west
to the Arizona Border come sunrise Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Higher moisture will be in place along and east of a backdoor front
across far western NM Saturday with PWATS around 1 to 1.3 inches
along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Showers and storms will get
going across central and southern mountain ranges midday before
moving south into surrounding lower elevations during the afternoon
and evening hours due to upper level northerly flow on the western
periphery of a 598 to 599 upper high over Arizona. Storms along and
east of the Continental Divide will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail due to bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts
along with locally heavy rainfall due to the high moisture content
mentioned above. The flash flooding risk will be highest on recent
burn scars (i.e. Ruidoso area). Elsewhere, the heat will be the main
story across northwest and far west central NM with high
temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 due to being close to
the center of the upper high. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
for the Northwest Plateau and well as the West Central Plateau
(including Gallup and Zuni) due to recovery operations from flash
flooding events the last few weeks. Storms Saturday evening will be
focused along and south of I-40 before tapering off across southern
NM overnight.

The upper high will begin nosing back east to over the Four Corners
area Sunday before flattening across much of the desert SW Monday
through Wednesday. This will result in a lower storm coverage with
any isolated activity limited to the mountains Sunday and Monday due
to lower PWATS around 0.6 to 0.9 inches. With the 595 to 596 upper
high overhead, the heat will reintensify across central and eastern
NM with upper 90s to low 100s common across lower elevations.
Eventual heat Advisories across northwest and far west central NM
this weekend will potentially need to be expanded to some central
and eastern zones come Monday. PWATS gradually increase Tuesday and
Wednesday to around 1 to 1.1 inches helping to result in a slightly
higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the western and
central high terrain and nearby lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the west
central and southwest mountains and nearby lower elevations, the
south central mountains, and far northeast NM this afternoon and
early evening. Storms across far northeast NM could linger through
sunset. Locally heavy rainfall with gusty and erratic winds under
any thunderstorm. Clearing skies overnight. Light winds outside
and near of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

No critical fire weather concerns through late next week. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms favoring southwest and far northeast New
Mexico this afternoon and evening. A backdoor front brings higher
moisture to areas along and east of the central mountain chain
resulting in a much higher storm coverage tomorrow. Storms will
bring higher moisture west into the Rio Grande Valley and western
New Mexico and a strong east canyon wind Friday evening into
Saturday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms across
central and eastern NM Saturday. Storms on Friday and Saturday will
be capable of becoming severe with damaging wind gusts and large
hail along with locally heavy rainfall. The flash flood risk will be
highest on area burn scars, low lying, poor drainage and urban
areas. Hot and dry across northwest and far west central New Mexico
Friday and Saturday. Drier and hotter weather expands back east
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65 101  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  52  97  54  94 /   0   5  20  20
Cuba............................  59  93  59  90 /   0   0   5  20
Gallup..........................  59  97  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  59  91  59  90 /  10   0   5  20
Grants..........................  61  94  62  94 /  10   0   5  10
Quemado.........................  60  92  61  92 /  10   5   5  20
Magdalena.......................  67  93  65  89 /  20  20  30  10
Datil...........................  61  89  61  87 /  20  20  20  30
Reserve.........................  61  96  61  97 /  20  30  10  30
Glenwood........................  66 101  66 100 /  20  30  10  30
Chama...........................  53  88  51  85 /   0  20  30  50
Los Alamos......................  64  90  62  86 /   0  20  20  60
Pecos...........................  61  89  57  84 /   0  40  40  90
Cerro/Questa....................  57  87  55  85 /   5  30  60  40
Red River.......................  49  76  46  74 /   5  50  60  60
Angel Fire......................  45  80  39  78 /   0  70  70  90
Taos............................  56  90  54  87 /   0  30  40  50
Mora............................  57  83  52  81 /   5  60  70  90
Espanola........................  63  97  62  93 /   0  20  20  50
Santa Fe........................  65  92  62  86 /   0  20  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  63  94  60  90 /   0  10  20  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70 100  67  95 /   0  10  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  69 101  67  95 /   0  10  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  69 103  66  98 /   5   5  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70 102  68  96 /   0   5  10  20
Belen...........................  68 104  66  97 /   5   5  20   5
Bernalillo......................  69 102  67  96 /   0   5  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  67 103  64  96 /   5   5  10  10
Corrales........................  70 103  67  97 /   0   5  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  68 103  66  96 /   5   5  10  10
Placitas........................  68  97  65  92 /   0  10  10  40
Rio Rancho......................  69 102  67  96 /   0   5  10  20
Socorro.........................  72 105  70  99 /  10  10  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  92  60  88 /   0  20  10  50
Tijeras.........................  66  94  61  89 /   0  20  10  50
Edgewood........................  63  94  58  89 /   0  30  20  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  60  95  56  89 /   0  30  20  60
Clines Corners..................  63  89  58  83 /   0  50  20  70
Mountainair.....................  63  94  58  89 /   0  30  20  50
Gran Quivira....................  64  93  60  87 /   5  30  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  69  98  66  91 /  10  40  40  70
Ruidoso.........................  63  89  60  81 /  10  60  30  80
Capulin.........................  57  84  52  81 /  30  70  70  60
Raton...........................  57  88  52  85 /  20  80  80  60
Springer........................  58  91  54  86 /  20  90  80  60
Las Vegas.......................  59  87  55  82 /   5  80  60  80
Clayton.........................  66  91  61  88 /  50  30  40  20
Roy.............................  63  90  58  84 /  20  80  70  60
Conchas.........................  68  99  63  91 /  10  70  60  40
Santa Rosa......................  66  97  63  87 /  10  50  40  50
Tucumcari.......................  70 100  64  93 /  10  40  50  40
Clovis..........................  69 100  66  93 /   0  20  60  40
Portales........................  70 100  67  93 /   0  20  60  40
Fort Sumner.....................  70 101  66  92 /   5  30  50  50
Roswell.........................  73 105  71  95 /   0   0  50  40
Picacho.........................  67  99  65  89 /   5  30  30  50
Elk.............................  64  97  62  88 /   5  40  20  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-219-220-
238.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-232-234-237-
238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71