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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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512 FXUS65 KABQ 151737 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1037 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1021 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will be on tap through the end of the week. Numerous high temperature records will be in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday. - Breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday and Friday along and east of the Central Mountain Chain will create difficult crosswinds for large and high-profile vehicles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1237 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025 Low stratus continues to expand into southeast and east central NM early this morning. Low chances for patchy freezing fog persist through this morning, including around Roswell. Best chances will be toward sunrise. Otherwise, high clouds will continue to stream overhead through today in advance of the baggy trough/weak low advancing toward NM. A weak lee side surface low will develop across northeast NM, allowing for an increase in westerly winds (10-20 mph) across eastern NM. The downsloping should allow for temperatures to warm 10-20 degrees from yesterday`s readings and oust any remaining stratus by late morning. Similar temperatures to yesterday, or perhaps a few degrees cooler, will be on tap elsewhere. The upper level disturbance will continue to cross NM through Monday night then northwest flow will take shape on Tuesday on the back side of the trough axis. Favored northwest flow locales (FMN, AEG, CQC, etc) will get breezy in the afternoon. Clouds should clear out early in the morning, so plenty of sun will allow temperatures to climb several more degrees across the east and a few degrees across the Rio Grande Valley. A few records will be in jeopardy across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1237 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025 On Wednesday, a 170kt jet will race from the PacNW toward CO, with the nose of the jet reaching northern NM by late day Wednesday. H7 winds should increase to between 40 and 50kt by late afternoon Wednesday along and east of the Central Mtn Chain, then increase further (60+kt) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A 996-999mb lee side surface trough will develop by late afternoon. Thus, winds across the Sangre de Cristo Mtns and much of eastern NM will increase through the afternoon with Wind Advisories potentially needed over the mountains, but peak winds may occur Wednesday evening through early Thursday. Mountain wave activity may develop aiding in bringing the stronger momentum to the surface. There remains a low chance (10-20%) that erratic westerly wind gusts between 50-60mph will impact the I-25 corridor between Raton and Las Vegas Wednesday night. This would be dangerous for high- profile vehicles travelling along this route. The downslope component to the winds Wednesday afternoon will help temperatures warm further. High temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, except across the east where highs may be up to 25 degrees above normal. Several high temperature records will be in jeopardy. A backdoor front remains in store for Thursday. Less wind and cooler temperatures will be the rule for eastern NM, with little change noted across the west. 40-50kt westerly flow at H7 returns on Friday with another lee side surface trough (~1000mb) develops. Several record high temperatures are forecast. Little change to the sensible weather on Saturday, with breezy to locally windy conditions and record to near-record high temperatures. Another backdoor front is in store for Sunday, though even after the frontal passage, forecast highs remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Still no precipitation in store for the Land of Enchantment for the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025 Low clouds have persisted through the late morning in southeast New Mexico. Ceilings have lifted slightly over the past couple of hours and conditions should climb back up into VFR at KROW, KCVN, and K4MR before noon. Scattered to broken high clouds will be common throughout the afternoon at most sites. Aside from some breeziness on the lee side of the mountains, most locations will see light winds mostly out of the west or southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025 Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures remain on tap for the next 7 days. Record to near record high temperatures are in store Tuesday through Saturday. No precipitation is forecast. Winds will increase on Wednesday, especially along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Gusts up to 50 mph will occur during the late afternoon hours, but winds will increase further Wednesday evening through Thursday morning as mountain wave activity develops. Wind gusts may top 60 mph across the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Gusty winds will return on Friday along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Gusts up to 40 mph are likely. Minimum RH each afternoon between 10 and 35% will be common. The stronger winds and lower RH will allow for elevated fire weather conditions to develop along and east of the Central Mtn Chain both Wed and Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 25 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 57 18 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 23 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 58 19 58 22 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 26 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 21 60 23 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 26 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 59 33 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 60 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 68 24 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 71 29 73 30 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 54 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 54 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 60 31 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 29 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 51 27 48 27 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 56 16 54 18 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 58 19 58 22 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 63 31 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 61 25 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 33 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 28 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 37 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 30 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 28 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 31 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 24 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 24 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 60 30 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 25 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 56 34 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 58 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 30 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 32 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 55 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 58 30 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 24 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 30 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 58 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 30 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 60 34 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 60 37 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 63 30 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 65 27 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 65 24 68 25 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 30 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 68 32 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 65 29 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 65 27 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 32 68 30 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 68 28 69 28 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 63 32 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 63 30 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 59 28 70 28 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 29 73 31 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 68 37 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 35 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...25 |
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