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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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519 FXUS65 KABQ 300702 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 102 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1258 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 - Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through Friday east of the Continental Divide with a risk of lightning, erratic wind gusts, brief downpours, and flash flooding below vulnerable burn scars. Storms west of the central mountain chain will produce gusty winds with little rain and a risk of new fire starts. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 The upper level low pressure system has moved out of CA/NV into UT and this feature will lift into northern CO and WY later today. An attendant Pacific front is accompanying the upper level feature and could be seen on the ABX radar just prior to midnight last evening an unusual occurrence, perhaps made possible by more insect activity and scatterers this time of year. As the upper low lifts northeastward, it will cause a lee-side surface low to also deepen over eastern CO and western KS this afternoon. This will tighten the surface gradient enough for breezy to windy conditions this afternoon, mainly in the central to northeast highlands and adjacent plains over northeastern to east central NM. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be reached with the downsloping component allowing temperatures in eastern zones to climb a few degrees above yesterdays readings and closer to normal. Meanwhile, remaining western zones will stay a few degrees below normal today. Dry surface dewpoints in the single digits to low 20s (deg F) began spreading eastward yesterday, and this trend will become more pronounced today with the stronger westerly component to the winds. Therefore, it will be hard to even get many high-based cumulus to sprout this afternoon. Into Sunday, the remnants of the upper low will put more distance between it and NM, allowing the gradient aloft to relax a bit more. Although another lee-side surface trough is modeled to develop Sunday afternoon, it will be considerably weaker, leaving a looser surface gradient that will keep afternoon winds more subdued. A few high-based cumulus will struggle to develop over west central to northeastern NM Sunday afternoon, and temperatures will gain a few degrees in all zones with all of the forecast area running within +/- 5 degrees of normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 By Monday, convection will be starting to spread over Old Mexico and the Big Bend as return flow off of the Gulf gets going in earnest. South southeasterly winds are modeled to enter southeastern NM with a limited spatial area (Lincoln, Chaves, Roosevelt counties) generating modest QPF via the moisture advection. Over the northern to western zones of NM, temperatures will gain a couple more degrees with drier dewpoints holding, but high-based cumulus will start to increase with a few being supportive of virga, mainly in east central to northeastern NM Monday afternoon. A gentle upper level trough will take shape over southern CA and the Baja, while the return flow keeps pumping higher dewpoints into west TX with modified moisture seeping farther west into NM Monday night through Tuesday. Much of the eastern half of the forecast area is projected to observe 40s to 50s dewpoints (deg F) Tuesday with PWATs climbing to 0.8 to 1.3 inch (highest values in the southeastern zones). This will yield an abrupt increase in convection with rain chances quickly spiking. Convection would bypass the northwest plateau and nearby areas of NM, but most remaining zones in the forecast area would see scattered to numerous showers and storms with a convectively-driven vort max likely lingering over central NM into the nighttime. This would have implications going into Wednesday with lots of debris clouds lingering into the day while the moisture advances farther toward the AZ border. High rain chances would persist Wednesday, but there would be questions about instability due to cloud cover, and a more stratiform precip event on Wednesday would certainly stunt rain rates. The aforementioned CA trough would move into the Gulf of CA by Thursday, and the introduction of a light westerly component to the flow aloft would lead to a slight drying in western, and to a lesser extent, central NM zones. This would lead to a slight reduction in POPs Thursday and more-so into Friday with the moisture staying more focused over the eastern half of NM while a backdoor front arrives. there The moisture would then look to be recycled for a few more storms into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours across northern and central New Mexico with skies turning mostly clear into Saturday. Periods of breeziness will be observed tonight as a dry Pacific front moves through. Breezy to windy conditions will then develop over the central highlands into the east central and northeastern plains Saturday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt being common. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 Surface dewpoints began drying out yesterday, and this trend will continue today as surface/20ft winds gain more of a westerly component. A lee-side surface low will present a strong enough gradient to induce breezy to windy conditions this afternoon with gusts of 30 to 35 mph concentrating over the central to northeast highlands and the adjacent east central plains. These speeds will teeter along critical thresholds, and humidity will plummet to near 10% as the dry air intensifies in downsloping flow. However, Energy Release Components in these areas are currently quite low from recent rainfall earlier in the week, so no Red Flag Warning is planned. That being said, any cured 1-hour fuels would be most susceptible to carrying fire today with that capability likely increasing more into Sunday and Monday. The good news is that wind speeds reduce both Sunday and Monday, and while breezy and dry conditions will ensue, winds should not reach critical speeds. It will still turn warmer with very low afternoon RH and less efficient overnight RH recoveries through Monday, leading to the drying mentioned above. This should change into Tuesday and Wednesday though, as the moist return flow from the Gulf arrives, bringing wetting storms, higher humidity, and moderated temperatures. Unfortunately, the area that will not benefit from the moisture and/or wetting rain will be the northwest plateau and surrounding highlands such as the Chuska mountains well into next week. Wetting rainfall was also a bit more spotty in the middle to lower Rio Grande valley earlier this week, so that might be an area susceptible to new lightning-caused ignitions Tuesday onward next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 43 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 33 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 72 41 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 37 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 41 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 74 44 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 51 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 83 41 87 44 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 86 45 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 67 34 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 73 44 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 42 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 69 32 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 67 32 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 74 39 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 74 41 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 81 46 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 74 50 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 47 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 56 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 52 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 85 51 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 53 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 49 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 52 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 48 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 84 52 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 50 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 78 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 83 52 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 57 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 78 46 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 78 43 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 39 86 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 46 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 79 45 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 77 47 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 56 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 74 42 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 79 41 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 80 41 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 42 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 82 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 80 46 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 86 50 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 82 48 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 88 52 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 88 54 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 89 53 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 87 51 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 93 55 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 54 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 85 51 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52 |
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